A phenomenon that has become all too familiar for livestock farmers is happening once again: the annual autumn collapse of beef prices. The only difference 2017 brings is that the price pull is coming a few weeks earlier than normal. While eurozone prices have increased over the summer, Irish prices have tumbled (see Phelim O’Neill on page 21).

R3 steers are now making €3.81/kg – almost 10% less than mid-June. At the same time, the UK – where most of our beef goes – has a price equivalent to €4.16c/kg, at a rate of 92p for every €1.

While obviously a factor, currency changes are not to blame for the extent of the fall. The fact that the weekly kill is up to 35,000 head per week should not shoulder all of the blame either. Factories will only buy what they can sell.

You can argue that beef prices stabilised at €3.96/kg when summer kill levels dropped to 31,000, but it’s no longer just the numbers going through the factories that are important.

With more and more dairy-bred animals entering the beef chain, tonnage of meat is also now a factor. Statistics show the lower tonnage of dairy-bred animals is equivalent to about 30,000 head less. On top of this, some of the highest meat yielding weanlings were exported out of the country last autumn. Both these factors, allied to the fact that there isn’t any great volume of meat in cold storage, are making the moves by factories to pull price so early unjustifiable.

All last year, farmers were conditioned to the possibility that there would be 100,000 extra dairy-bred beef animals (Hereford and Angus type) on the market in 2017. To date, we are looking at a kill of about 60,000 ahead of last year.

So, what exactly is happening? Pu simply, factories are being opportunistic. Some parts of the country received up to 100mm of rain (almost four inches) over last weekend and farmers are having to move cattle off grass. If they are near fit or up to age, they are going straight to factories or into marts as near-finished animals.

Agents can see this and are reacting accordingly by dropping prices as the cattle are on the way regardless. This is not the basis for a long-term trading relationship with suppliers and ambitious national growth strategies. If there is a limit on the number of cattle the industry can handle, then maybe the beef forum should operate on that strategy, not with opportunistic trading.

This time last year, cold stores were filling up. That’s not happening now – demand for meat protein globally is good. Yes we should expect higher numbers of cattle coming on the market in the coming weeks. However, with little or nothing in cold storage and animals moving in and out of factories quickly, this shouldn’t be a problem.

It is clear that the IFA showdown with Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed next Wednesday is gaining importance. One of our most vulnerable agri sectors is losing something to the tune of €2m per week in lost output. Despondent Irish suckler and beef farmers are quickly losing patience with the factories, the farm organisations, the minister and – most especially – the beef forum.

The trajectory of beef prices across Europe for the last three months has moved in the opposite direction to Irish prices.

The beef forum cannot be a get-out clause for the minister to evade the real issues. So far, it has delivered nothing tangible. Farmers need clarity on the impact of sterling on prices, what the competition authority thinks of the early autumn price pull, statistics on the type of animals killed and impact on tonnage, the effect of live exports on the trade and required updates to trim and carcase grading. The summer holidays are very definitely over for Minister Creed. A winter of discontent looms for him and factories unless action is delivered next week.