Warnings about an exodus of farmers from suckler production are supported this week by a major new report.

Irish suckler cow numbers will fall by a massive 20% to 30% or more than 200,000 head over the next 12 years, it says. The reduction in beef cow numbers is attributed to the low competitiveness of suckling and dependence on EU direct payments for family farm income. Total EU beef cow numbers are expected to fall by 10% or 1.1m head – but the biggest drop is predicted for Ireland.

The report from the European Commission will be of keen interest to farmers now questioning their future in suckler production and it will concern the meat processing sector.

The report acknowledges that an important driver of suckler cow numbers in individual member states will be coupling of direct payments to herd size or use of schemes such as the Beef Data and Genomics Programme. It will drive farmer demands for more support for suckler cows.

Ironically, the report predicts a stable outlook for EU beef prices. That is because EU dairy cow numbers will also gradually fall over the period and this will limit EU beef production. There will be some pressure on EU beef prices in 2018 as more beef output from the US and Brazil puts pressure on world and EU prices.

However, prices could recover by 2019 as falling beef and dairy cow numbers take effect and thereafter prices will remain stable.

While EU dairy cow numbers are expected to fall, the report predicts that dairy cow numbers in Ireland will buck the trend, rising by approximately 350,000 head or about 33% over the next 12 years.

IFA president Joe Healy said that targeted support for the suckler herd must be prioritised by Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed and the IFA has put forward proposals for a payment of €200/cow.