Cow numbers are set to increase by 100,000 head between now and 2025 and will reach around 2.63m in total by the middle of the decade.

A forecast lift in the dairy cow herd of 200,000 head, which will more than offset a 100,000 head decline in suckler cow numbers, will drive the overall expansion.

“Dairy cow numbers are likely to be 1.8m by 2025, and may be higher,” a recent ICBF analysis has shown.

The ICBF presentation, which is titled the ‘Role of Breeding in Addressing GHG Challenges’, has predicted that beef cow numbers will fall to between 830,000 and 900,000 by 2025.

The study notes that the overall dairy herd growth has reached 4.7% due to a combination of higher heifer and calf numbers, along with increased dairy inseminations.

The number of dairy heifers in 2021 topped 400,000 for the first time, up from 378,000 head in 2020 and 366,000 in 2018.

The report also recorded a “significant increase” in dairy heifer calves, with numbers up 7.5%.

In addition, dairy inseminations continue to grow. The number of dairy sire inseminations used on both heifers and cows reached 1.66m in 2021, up from 1.6m in 2020 and 1.47m in 2018.

There are between 150,000 and 200,000 additional dairy animals “in the pipeline” as a consequence of this growth, the ICBF study finds.

In contrast to the continued dairy expansion, the ICBF forecasts that suckler cow numbers will contract further.

Beef cow numbers fell from 981,000 to 937,000 this year. This was attributed to the ending of the BDGP and exceptionally high beef prices.

The presentation states that suckler cow numbers are likely to drop to 850,000-900,000 by 2025, but it projects that this figure could be 830,000.

ICBF points out that the slide in beef cow numbers has been mirrored by a 10% reduction in suckler replacements over the last three years. Numbers fell from 195,000 in 2018 to 172,500 in 2021.

On overall cattle numbers in the country, the ICBF highlighted the large number of calves that are currently exported annually.

The continued export of over 100,000 calves each year would be a “significant consideration”, the ICBF noted.