In recent days, as details of 2030 targets in the new Government carbon budgets have made their way into the public domain, the prospect of a ‘stable national herd’ has been a key feature of the discussion.

It appears to be proposed, at least in the public domain, that the ‘national herd’ would remain stable as measures are implemented that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions without cutting livestock numbers.

On the face of it, this would seem like a win of sorts for farmers, enabling the current level of production to be maintained while significant greenhouse gas emissions reductions are delivered.

However, as with everything, the detail is what matters and the current discourse takes place in the absence of any clear definition of a ‘stable herd’ and how this would be maintained.

Reference Period

At the outset, it would seem necessary that ‘stabilising the national herd’ be done on the basis of some reference year or period.

The reference period is significant

A reference could be a single point in time, for instance December 2020, or an average time period, for example the average of June 2019, 2020 and 2021. It could also be at some point in the future, such as December 2021.

The reference period is significant. If it is historical, it could mean that current livestock numbers are above the reference level, bringing about a de facto reduction in livestock numbers. The Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) takes 2018 as a baseline. As Jack Kennedy reports, both the year and the time of year used would be material in determining the baseline reference.

Mechanism

The mechanism for ‘stabilising the national herd’ is also worth considering. The national herd is essentially a collective term for all of the individual herds in the country. Would ‘stabilising the national herd’ occur at national level or individual farm level? Would an individual farm’s livestock numbers be stabilised and future growth prevented? If a national approach were taken and the total number of livestock must remain at a specified level, how would that be managed? Would quotas or some form of licence, limiting the number of livestock on the farm, be introduced?

It is also worth considering if a ‘stable herd’ would be a fixed number or would such a concept, if introduced, be aligned to future livestock numbers at a particular date or in reference to a particular time period

How would quotas or licences, if introduced, account for the range of different livestock and age ranges of stock on the farm? If introduced, would trading be allowed between farms, could those wishing to exit or consolidate sell their quotas to a willing buyer? Would there be separate beef and dairy quotas or could quotas or licences be traded across enterprises? If so, would the economics of dairying mean that beef farmers become priced out of this type of trading and result in a declining beef herd?

It is also worth considering if a ‘stable herd’ would be a fixed number or would such a concept, if introduced, be aligned to future livestock numbers at a particular date or in reference to a particular time period.

For instance, if circumstances occurred which gave rise to a reduction in national livestock numbers, perhaps a prolonged period of drought or a severe fodder crisis, would the lower national livestock numbers now become the baseline for the national herd?

Comment

In the scale of what is a monumental existential crisis, the warming of the earth’s atmosphere and the consequent impact on climate change, the suggestion of a ‘stable national herd’ appears a relatively straightforward, if even benign solution.

We know that limiting livestock numbers will have a direct and immediate impact on the growth of methane emissions and everyone is in agreement that reducing methane emissions is necessary and the right thing to do.

However, before we readily adopt the terminology of ‘a stable national herd’, we owe it to those invested in livestock production to fully understand and explain what is meant by this and how it will impact them practically every day in making their livelihood from farming.