The trade deal between the EU and the Mercosur countries of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay will come into effect provisionally from this Friday, 1 May.
This means that all trade between the blocs will be under the terms agreed in the deal, even though the approval process hasn’t been completed in the European Parliament. Provisional introduction of the deal was announced by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen despite the European Parliament deciding to refer the deal to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for an opinion. It could take up to two years for this process to be completed.
There was a view that this referral might delay the introduction of the deal but that hasn’t been the case.
Polish response
Reuters reported last week that Poland was going to file a complaint against the agreement with the ECJ and have until 26 May to do so. MEP Ciaran Mullooly this week challenged Justice Minister Helen McEntee TD on X, formerly twitter, to join this action.
Poland, along with France, has been among the most vocal opponents of the EU-Mercosur trade deal. Like France and Ireland, it voted against the deal in January when it was approved by a qualified majority.
Poland’s farming lobby has also loudly opposed the deal though their opposition is more based on the 180,000-tonne (t) poultry meat quota in the deal rather than the additional 99,000t beef quota.
While poultry meat production and processing is a significant business in Northern Ireland, it is less so south of the border where it is very much behind beef, pigmeat and sheepmeat. Irish farmer opposition to the Mercosur trade deal has been largely driven by beef producers.
Impact on Irish
beef producers
The European Commission and advocates for the deal have consistently said that in the overall context of the EU beef market, an additional 99,000t carcase weight quota split between fresh and frozen beef will be easily absorbed by the market.
It is pointed out that EU production has been in steady decline and this is forecast to continue over the next decade. Additionally, the introduction of a safeguard mechanism last September, whereby the preferential tariffs can be suspended in certain circumstances, is offered as further reassurance to farmers and processors concerned about the impact of additional South American beef on the EU market.
It is also widely suggested that just because there is a beef quota in place it doesn’t mean that it will be used. The case of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) is often put forward as an example whereby even though they have a 50,000t quota, annual EU beef imports from Canada have never been above 2,000t since 2017.
The counter argument is that while 99,000t may be a small percentage in absolute terms of the EU market, the likelihood is that it will be primarily used for high-value steak meat exports from South American countries to the EU.
The highest-value striploin and fillet cuts account for around just 25-26kg of a 400kg carcase so the 99,000t Mercosur quota is a much more significant in the context of this much smaller segment of the beef market.
As for the safeguard introduced by the EU, it has been widely criticised as being too little too late, but it should be acknowledged that it does offer something of a control mechanism where nothing had been provided for previously.
As for Canada not using its quota, this is explained by its industry being unwilling to forgo the use of growth promoting hormones in their production system. These are banned by the EU which effectively excludes Canadian beef from the EU market.
Brazil factor
As Figure 1 shows, EU beef imports from the Mercosur countries in the first two months of this year are running well ahead of any of the same period in previous years for which data is available.
A key driver of this is the fact that the EU is a lucrative market for high-value cuts combined with Brazil in particular having a growing quantity of beef to export. Beef exports from Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay are generally stable with some fluctuation both ways.
However, in the case of Brazil, there has been a huge increase in exports over the past three decades as shown in Figure 2, with a 20% increase last year alone bring the total to 3.5m tonnes. In the first quarter of 2026, Brazil’s beef exports have increased by a further 18%, though USDA has forecast an overall small decline for this year.
Up until last year, China was able to absorb ever increasing quantities of beef from Brazil but from this year it has set a 1.1m tonne quota limit, more than 500,000t below the volume they imported in 2025. Any beef Brazil supplies to China outside the quota will carry a severe 55% tariff.
This means that if Brazil exports the same amount of beef (or more) this year than it did last year, it will be looking for an alternative market. The US is an option for most of this but they will be looking elsewhere as well and the EU is likely to be a target.
Comment: Ireland wins overall from Mercosur but beef is at risk
It has to be recognised that, overall, the Irish economy will benefit from the Mercosur trade deal. The companies that provide the ever increasing corporation tax returns will be among the highest beneficiaries.
As for beef producers, we won’t know for certain for some time whether or not the EU market will seamlessly absorb any additional beef that is imported from South America or if indeed the quota will just be used by beef that is currently imported with full tariff paid. When the UK tariff-free agreement with Australia and New Zealand came into effect in 2023, it had minimal initial impact on UK beef import patterns. It has only been over the past six months that there has been a noticeable increase in their market share.
The Mercosur deal has a less-generous beef quota and it is likely to be some time before we can fully judge its impact. The bottom line is that while we can be sure that other sectors of the Irish economy will benefit from the deal, it does mean that the EU market will join the UK in becoming a market where Irish beef exports will face more competition.
Irish farmers will now be hoping that the EU market will be able to absorb any increase in imports, and if not, that the safeguards do what they are supposed to do.
The trade deal between the EU and the Mercosur countries of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay will come into effect provisionally from this Friday, 1 May.
This means that all trade between the blocs will be under the terms agreed in the deal, even though the approval process hasn’t been completed in the European Parliament. Provisional introduction of the deal was announced by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen despite the European Parliament deciding to refer the deal to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for an opinion. It could take up to two years for this process to be completed.
There was a view that this referral might delay the introduction of the deal but that hasn’t been the case.
Polish response
Reuters reported last week that Poland was going to file a complaint against the agreement with the ECJ and have until 26 May to do so. MEP Ciaran Mullooly this week challenged Justice Minister Helen McEntee TD on X, formerly twitter, to join this action.
Poland, along with France, has been among the most vocal opponents of the EU-Mercosur trade deal. Like France and Ireland, it voted against the deal in January when it was approved by a qualified majority.
Poland’s farming lobby has also loudly opposed the deal though their opposition is more based on the 180,000-tonne (t) poultry meat quota in the deal rather than the additional 99,000t beef quota.
While poultry meat production and processing is a significant business in Northern Ireland, it is less so south of the border where it is very much behind beef, pigmeat and sheepmeat. Irish farmer opposition to the Mercosur trade deal has been largely driven by beef producers.
Impact on Irish
beef producers
The European Commission and advocates for the deal have consistently said that in the overall context of the EU beef market, an additional 99,000t carcase weight quota split between fresh and frozen beef will be easily absorbed by the market.
It is pointed out that EU production has been in steady decline and this is forecast to continue over the next decade. Additionally, the introduction of a safeguard mechanism last September, whereby the preferential tariffs can be suspended in certain circumstances, is offered as further reassurance to farmers and processors concerned about the impact of additional South American beef on the EU market.
It is also widely suggested that just because there is a beef quota in place it doesn’t mean that it will be used. The case of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) is often put forward as an example whereby even though they have a 50,000t quota, annual EU beef imports from Canada have never been above 2,000t since 2017.
The counter argument is that while 99,000t may be a small percentage in absolute terms of the EU market, the likelihood is that it will be primarily used for high-value steak meat exports from South American countries to the EU.
The highest-value striploin and fillet cuts account for around just 25-26kg of a 400kg carcase so the 99,000t Mercosur quota is a much more significant in the context of this much smaller segment of the beef market.
As for the safeguard introduced by the EU, it has been widely criticised as being too little too late, but it should be acknowledged that it does offer something of a control mechanism where nothing had been provided for previously.
As for Canada not using its quota, this is explained by its industry being unwilling to forgo the use of growth promoting hormones in their production system. These are banned by the EU which effectively excludes Canadian beef from the EU market.
Brazil factor
As Figure 1 shows, EU beef imports from the Mercosur countries in the first two months of this year are running well ahead of any of the same period in previous years for which data is available.
A key driver of this is the fact that the EU is a lucrative market for high-value cuts combined with Brazil in particular having a growing quantity of beef to export. Beef exports from Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay are generally stable with some fluctuation both ways.
However, in the case of Brazil, there has been a huge increase in exports over the past three decades as shown in Figure 2, with a 20% increase last year alone bring the total to 3.5m tonnes. In the first quarter of 2026, Brazil’s beef exports have increased by a further 18%, though USDA has forecast an overall small decline for this year.
Up until last year, China was able to absorb ever increasing quantities of beef from Brazil but from this year it has set a 1.1m tonne quota limit, more than 500,000t below the volume they imported in 2025. Any beef Brazil supplies to China outside the quota will carry a severe 55% tariff.
This means that if Brazil exports the same amount of beef (or more) this year than it did last year, it will be looking for an alternative market. The US is an option for most of this but they will be looking elsewhere as well and the EU is likely to be a target.
Comment: Ireland wins overall from Mercosur but beef is at risk
It has to be recognised that, overall, the Irish economy will benefit from the Mercosur trade deal. The companies that provide the ever increasing corporation tax returns will be among the highest beneficiaries.
As for beef producers, we won’t know for certain for some time whether or not the EU market will seamlessly absorb any additional beef that is imported from South America or if indeed the quota will just be used by beef that is currently imported with full tariff paid. When the UK tariff-free agreement with Australia and New Zealand came into effect in 2023, it had minimal initial impact on UK beef import patterns. It has only been over the past six months that there has been a noticeable increase in their market share.
The Mercosur deal has a less-generous beef quota and it is likely to be some time before we can fully judge its impact. The bottom line is that while we can be sure that other sectors of the Irish economy will benefit from the deal, it does mean that the EU market will join the UK in becoming a market where Irish beef exports will face more competition.
Irish farmers will now be hoping that the EU market will be able to absorb any increase in imports, and if not, that the safeguards do what they are supposed to do.
SHARING OPTIONS