The start of August has seen the arrival of higher tariffs on many US imports.
Last week the debate was around how good or bad a deal the EU got by accepting a 15% tariff and while it is worse for Irish whiskey exports to the US, it is similar or even marginally better than the previous tariff on butter imports, our key agrifood export category to the US.
The other reality is that many other major exporters to the US are in a much worse place. Brazil’s beef export trade to the US which has surged over the past couple of years is set to grind to a halt as it now faces an additional 50% tariff on top of the existing 26.4%. Canada is now facing a penal 35% tariff while Australia and New Zealand who both had huge quotas at a preferential tariff of just over 4% are now looking at paying an additional 15% tariff. Mexico which is a huge export market for US agrifood exports as well as a major supplier of US imports is currently in negotiation and hasn’t had any additional tariffs imposed so far.
The UK is the only country that is better off as a result of the Trump tariffs as they secured a 10% tariff rate.
Disruption to global beef trade.
USDA data shows that up to 19 July this year, the US imported 946,121 tonnes of beef which is 17% more than for the same period last year. The US is consistently the world’s second largest beef importer after China. Demand is particularly strong at present because the US cattle herd is at its lowest level since the middle of the last century which is squeezing US production.
The top supplier of US beef imports in the year to date is Australia on 239,181 tonnes which is 38% up on the same period in 2024. Next is Brazil who have supplied 176,371 tonnes which is almost twice the volume supplied in the same period last year. An effective tariff that is over 76% effectively stops this trade. Canada is also a major supplier of US beef imports though at 146,468 tonnes the volume is 23% lower than it was a year ago. A 35% tariff will also effectively shut this down.
Knock on effect
The most immediate impact will be on Brazil who effectively need to find a new market immediately for more than 5,000 tonnes of beef on average that they have been shipping to the US this year.
This has been noted by buyers in China, the largest customer for Brazil’s beef exports and who bought 605,000 tonnes up to the end of June. While they will continue to buy on similar levels to before, the reality is that they will use the difficulty with the US to negotiate lower prices.
As for finding alternative markets, the EU becomes an obvious destination for at least some of the beef that was shipped to the US previously. Up to the end of May this year, 25,189 tonnes of fresh and frozen Brazilian beef was imported by the EU and the annual import total has been running between 50,000 and 65,000 tonnes annually over the past ten years. With cattle prices running at twice the level in the EU compared which what is being paid in Brazil, the EU market becomes an attractive alternative to the US.
While a tariff of almost 20% wont have as draconian an effect on Australian exports to the US, the zero tariff rate in the UK will make it a more attractive option that it might have been before.
Read more
Australia opens the door to US beef imports
Trump trade deal could have been worse
Tariff deal is better than the alternative
The start of August has seen the arrival of higher tariffs on many US imports.
Last week the debate was around how good or bad a deal the EU got by accepting a 15% tariff and while it is worse for Irish whiskey exports to the US, it is similar or even marginally better than the previous tariff on butter imports, our key agrifood export category to the US.
The other reality is that many other major exporters to the US are in a much worse place. Brazil’s beef export trade to the US which has surged over the past couple of years is set to grind to a halt as it now faces an additional 50% tariff on top of the existing 26.4%. Canada is now facing a penal 35% tariff while Australia and New Zealand who both had huge quotas at a preferential tariff of just over 4% are now looking at paying an additional 15% tariff. Mexico which is a huge export market for US agrifood exports as well as a major supplier of US imports is currently in negotiation and hasn’t had any additional tariffs imposed so far.
The UK is the only country that is better off as a result of the Trump tariffs as they secured a 10% tariff rate.
Disruption to global beef trade.
USDA data shows that up to 19 July this year, the US imported 946,121 tonnes of beef which is 17% more than for the same period last year. The US is consistently the world’s second largest beef importer after China. Demand is particularly strong at present because the US cattle herd is at its lowest level since the middle of the last century which is squeezing US production.
The top supplier of US beef imports in the year to date is Australia on 239,181 tonnes which is 38% up on the same period in 2024. Next is Brazil who have supplied 176,371 tonnes which is almost twice the volume supplied in the same period last year. An effective tariff that is over 76% effectively stops this trade. Canada is also a major supplier of US beef imports though at 146,468 tonnes the volume is 23% lower than it was a year ago. A 35% tariff will also effectively shut this down.
Knock on effect
The most immediate impact will be on Brazil who effectively need to find a new market immediately for more than 5,000 tonnes of beef on average that they have been shipping to the US this year.
This has been noted by buyers in China, the largest customer for Brazil’s beef exports and who bought 605,000 tonnes up to the end of June. While they will continue to buy on similar levels to before, the reality is that they will use the difficulty with the US to negotiate lower prices.
As for finding alternative markets, the EU becomes an obvious destination for at least some of the beef that was shipped to the US previously. Up to the end of May this year, 25,189 tonnes of fresh and frozen Brazilian beef was imported by the EU and the annual import total has been running between 50,000 and 65,000 tonnes annually over the past ten years. With cattle prices running at twice the level in the EU compared which what is being paid in Brazil, the EU market becomes an attractive alternative to the US.
While a tariff of almost 20% wont have as draconian an effect on Australian exports to the US, the zero tariff rate in the UK will make it a more attractive option that it might have been before.
Read more
Australia opens the door to US beef imports
Trump trade deal could have been worse
Tariff deal is better than the alternative
SHARING OPTIONS