As 2025 draws to a close, Irish beef producers will look back fondly on a year of record prices and levels of profitability well ahead of anything experienced previously.
With 2026 just hours away, the big issue now is how will the beef market perform in the new year.
The key drivers for the value of any product are the simple economics of supply and demand.
It is widely forecast that the supply of cattle in Ireland will remain tight in the coming year following the sharp reduction in 2025.
The question now is how will global supply be and who can fill the deficit in production in Ireland, the rest of the EU and UK.
The United States department of agriculture (USDA) has recently published its updated forecast for 2026 - all weights are carcase weight equivalent (CWE).
Production drop in 2026
After achieving record production and exports in 2025, both Brazil and Australia are forecast to drop back in production in 2026. Production in Brazil was expected by USDA to reach 12.350m tonnes in 2025, some 500,000t more than in 2024, but in 2026, this is predicted to drop back to 11.7m tonnes.
Australian production had increased by over 300,000 in 2025 compared with 2024, but this is expected to drop slightly, down 20,000t to 2.865m tonnes in 2026.
The ongoing decline in EU production is forecast to continue with a further drop of 50,000t forecast in 2026 and a slight drop of 10,000t is forecast for Argentina.
The US cattle herd has hit its lowest point in over 70 years and in 2026, USDA is predicting that production will be down 102,000t to 11.712m tonnes.
Import trade impact
Demand from China has driven global beef trade for more than a decade, but the rate of increased imports has been slowing down in recent years.
In 2026, USDA is forecasting that China will for the first time import less beef, suggesting that it will import 3.750m tonnes, down from 3.815m tonnes this year.
The US is expected to increase imports again next year by 48,000 to 2.472m tonnes, while the EU is expected to import 20,000t less in 2026 than it did this year.
The UK, on the other hand, is expected to increase import volumes by 10,000t to 410,000t.
Both the third- and fourth-largest beef importing countries are also forecast to increase volumes next year.
Japan is forecast to reverse the decline in imports over the past five years, with USDA predicting that it will import 680,000t in the coming year, a 5,000t increase.
South Korea is forecast to increase import volumes by 15,000t on 2025 to 605,000t.
Export trade
After a prolonged period of exceptional growth in imports, Brazil is forecast to export 250,000t less beef in the coming year.
This will bring it back to 4m tonnes, which is still almost 1.7m tonnes more than it exported in 2021.
The situation with Australia is similar, in that after several years of rapid growth in beef exports, it is forecast to drop back by 20,000t in the coming year to 2.165m tonnes. This is still 927,000t more than it exported in 2022.
The other major player in global beef exports is the US and it is forecast by USDA to export 1.127m tonnes in 2026, which is 46,000t less than in 2025 and 481,000t less than it exported in 2022.
Comment – beef supply will tighten in coming year
This global forecast by USDA suggests that beef supply in the major exporting countries will be lower in 2026 than it was in 2025. The picture in Ireland, the UK and across the EU is similar in relation to supply.
The question now is will demand be sustained now that higher prices have filtered along the supply chain to consumers. If consumption remains robust, then Irish farmers can expect strong prices to reflect this.
The only note of caution is that prices have risen sharply for consumers around the world in 2025 and if there are financial pressures in the coming year, beef - as a relative luxury food product - could become vulnerable if shoppers were forced to make price-based choices.
As 2025 draws to a close, Irish beef producers will look back fondly on a year of record prices and levels of profitability well ahead of anything experienced previously.
With 2026 just hours away, the big issue now is how will the beef market perform in the new year.
The key drivers for the value of any product are the simple economics of supply and demand.
It is widely forecast that the supply of cattle in Ireland will remain tight in the coming year following the sharp reduction in 2025.
The question now is how will global supply be and who can fill the deficit in production in Ireland, the rest of the EU and UK.
The United States department of agriculture (USDA) has recently published its updated forecast for 2026 - all weights are carcase weight equivalent (CWE).
Production drop in 2026
After achieving record production and exports in 2025, both Brazil and Australia are forecast to drop back in production in 2026. Production in Brazil was expected by USDA to reach 12.350m tonnes in 2025, some 500,000t more than in 2024, but in 2026, this is predicted to drop back to 11.7m tonnes.
Australian production had increased by over 300,000 in 2025 compared with 2024, but this is expected to drop slightly, down 20,000t to 2.865m tonnes in 2026.
The ongoing decline in EU production is forecast to continue with a further drop of 50,000t forecast in 2026 and a slight drop of 10,000t is forecast for Argentina.
The US cattle herd has hit its lowest point in over 70 years and in 2026, USDA is predicting that production will be down 102,000t to 11.712m tonnes.
Import trade impact
Demand from China has driven global beef trade for more than a decade, but the rate of increased imports has been slowing down in recent years.
In 2026, USDA is forecasting that China will for the first time import less beef, suggesting that it will import 3.750m tonnes, down from 3.815m tonnes this year.
The US is expected to increase imports again next year by 48,000 to 2.472m tonnes, while the EU is expected to import 20,000t less in 2026 than it did this year.
The UK, on the other hand, is expected to increase import volumes by 10,000t to 410,000t.
Both the third- and fourth-largest beef importing countries are also forecast to increase volumes next year.
Japan is forecast to reverse the decline in imports over the past five years, with USDA predicting that it will import 680,000t in the coming year, a 5,000t increase.
South Korea is forecast to increase import volumes by 15,000t on 2025 to 605,000t.
Export trade
After a prolonged period of exceptional growth in imports, Brazil is forecast to export 250,000t less beef in the coming year.
This will bring it back to 4m tonnes, which is still almost 1.7m tonnes more than it exported in 2021.
The situation with Australia is similar, in that after several years of rapid growth in beef exports, it is forecast to drop back by 20,000t in the coming year to 2.165m tonnes. This is still 927,000t more than it exported in 2022.
The other major player in global beef exports is the US and it is forecast by USDA to export 1.127m tonnes in 2026, which is 46,000t less than in 2025 and 481,000t less than it exported in 2022.
Comment – beef supply will tighten in coming year
This global forecast by USDA suggests that beef supply in the major exporting countries will be lower in 2026 than it was in 2025. The picture in Ireland, the UK and across the EU is similar in relation to supply.
The question now is will demand be sustained now that higher prices have filtered along the supply chain to consumers. If consumption remains robust, then Irish farmers can expect strong prices to reflect this.
The only note of caution is that prices have risen sharply for consumers around the world in 2025 and if there are financial pressures in the coming year, beef - as a relative luxury food product - could become vulnerable if shoppers were forced to make price-based choices.
SHARING OPTIONS