Brazil is expected to produce enough extra grain to make up the shortfall predicted from the drop in the Ukrainian grain harvest later this year, should weather conditions hold for another three to four months, commodity risk manager with StoneX, Rory Deverell, has suggested.

Deverell also told farmers and stakeholders at the Irish Pig Health Society symposium that the first grain crop has already been harvested in Brazil and that the second crop is growing, stating that the weather is looking "OK" but "a bit drier than comfortable".

“The current expectation is, all going well given current circumstances, they [the Ukrainians] will probably produce 30% to 40% less than they did last year,” observed Deverell.

“The world has lost about 15m tonnes of Ukrainian corn and Brazil is probably going to produce about 20m tonnes, maybe 30m tonnes more corn than last year, so there’s a nice balance there,” he said.

2022 could see the “mother of all weather markets” dictating meal price trends as grain traders follow the weather situation of the major grain growing regions closely to judge whether to lock-in grain prices by buying futures, the risk manager also said.

No buffer to soften the blow

The prediction comes as the grain industry is left with a hole in global exports that is two and a half times the size of the “shock” seen in 2010 and 2012, two years of drought and low trading volumes in the feed ingredients sector, the attendees were told.

The grain supply situation is also exacerbated due to the reality that in 2022, there is not the same “buffer” of wheat and other grains globally as there had been in previous years.

Had the disruptions to global grain supplies resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine happened in 2016 or 2017, there would have been surplus to “at least get us through a couple of months”, Deverell said.

Pig farmer meeting

The symposium saw a strong attendance from farmers, industry stakeholders and the research community, with the topics of animal welfare, alternative feed ingredients for pig diets and on-farm technologies covered by the guest speakers also.

An industry exhibition also allowed farmers and stakeholders to discuss the situation in the pig sector, offering innovators the opportunity to showcase their products and services.