Brazil is expected to produce enough extra grain to make up the shortfall predicted from lower Ukrainian plantings and disruptions to supply chains in the Black Sea region, Rory Deverell, commodity risk manager with StoneX has suggested.
Deverell told farmers and stakeholders at the Irish Pig Health Society symposium that the first Brazilian grain crop has already been harvested and that the second crop is now growing, commenting that the weather is looking “OK” even though conditions are “a bit drier than comfortable”.
“The world has lost about 15m tonnes of Ukrainian corn and Brazil is probably going to produce about 20m tonnes, maybe 30m tonnes more corn than last year, so there’s a nice balance there,” said Deverell.
The grain supply situation globally is exacerbated due to the fact that in 2022, there is not the same “buffer” of wheat and other grains globally as there had been in previous years.
The analyst also stated that the fate of the Ukrainian port of Odessa would also be an important factor in determining grain process and availability into 2022.
Should the heavy shipping port of Odessa face the same devastation and destruction as Mariupol, grain harvested in Ukraine would face significant difficulties to export to countries like Ireland, as would any of last year’s grain supplies still in storage, he explained.
2022 could see the “mother of all weather markets” dictating meal price trends into the summer, as grain traders follow the weather situation of the major grain growing regions closely to judge whether to lock-in grain prices by buying futures, the symposium heard.
Pig farmer meeting
The symposium saw a strong attendance from farmers, industry stakeholders and the research community, with the topics of animal welfare, alternative feed ingredients for pig diets and on-farm technologies covered.