International grain futures have been roughly flat for the past week, following a rise that took them off the floor a week ago. However, European wheat futures saw small declines.

Overall market sentiment was possibly helped to some degree by the fact that the latest International Grain Council report predicted a 2% reduction in global wheat production for 2018/19. An output of 742Mt could result in the first stock draw-down in years if demand trends continue.

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Lack of snow cover and frost risk has been a threat to global winter wheat output for many weeks now, but there were no major reports of low temperatures that could have caused damage. But now the AHDB reports that many of the major central European exporting regions have received a good snow cover and the market is now seeing this as business as usual for output, unless it melts very early to restore the risk.

On the oilseed front, US soya bean futures rose last week in response to ongoing concerns from the continuing dry conditions that could affect crop planting in Argentina. However, the strengthening euro against the dollar has caused euro prices to decrease for oilseed rape (AHDB).

Native physical prices remain broadly similar due to lack of trading. Spot price remains around €173 to €175/t for wheat and €174 to €175/t for barley. Specific deals can be higher, especially for barley. May prices are now broadly similar and November is somewhat weaker for wheat at €171/t, with barley holding around €165/t.