Fertiliser prices and supply are in unprecedented territory at present, with price lists changing on a regular basis due to uncertainty in the market, the trade warns.

Farmers contacting fertiliser suppliers for quotes this week are being met with caution as prices continue to climb.

Standard urea is expected to go over €400-410/t in the near future, while protected urea is expected to reach €440-450/t. CAN is headed for €280-285/t. It should be noted that at these prices, protected urea is still good value over CAN. Looking at compound prices, and 18-6-12 is en route to €390/t.

What’s causing the rise?

Nitrogen supplies are reported to be tight. A plethora of factors are to blame for this, and while COVID-19 and Brexit are some of the suspects in the mix, there is also demand from farmers in the US, as non-planted acres (as a result of wet weather) return to production.

Nitrogen production also slowed down last autumn with high gas prices and it seems this is also affecting supplies

An increase in the winter cropping area planted in Eastern Europe may also be impacting supplies.

Higher grain prices have led to more land entering production in some countries, which is increasing demand for fertilisers.

Nitrogen production also slowed down last autumn with high gas prices and it seems this is also affecting supplies.

Supply

Some suppliers can no longer guarantee a supply of nitrogen-based products in to late spring and early summer, while merchants and co-ops are generally looking after regular customers at present and aren’t in search of new customers. The best hope of achieving a competitive price looks to be prompt payment.

Large amounts of farmers did move earlier than usual on purchases this year, so were in ahead of the dramatic rise, and while most merchants and co-ops would have tied into lower prices with fertiliser suppliers in the backend of last year, it is expected that these supplies won’t cushion prices for much longer.

While prices often see a dip towards the end of March and into April, it is still unclear how the market will evolve

However, this cushion was still evident in some earlier prices this week, as CAN is still available for €240-260/t with some merchants, where a full load is purchased and is paid for immediately.

With that said, prices at the low end of the scale are all expected to move upwards in the coming days and weeks.

While prices often see a dip towards the end of March and into April, it is still unclear how the market will evolve.

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) is another product on the rise and needs to be watched.

For context, in mid-January, the Irish Farmers Journal reported prices of €350-355/t for protected urea, €315-325/t for standard urea, €215-230/t for CAN and €312-330/t for 18-6-12.