International futures grain markets remained relatively quiet over Christmas, with wheat a little jumpy and maize generally strengthening.

Markets for soya beans and soya bean meal have been helped by the ongoing dockers’ strike in Argentina.

This has prevented loading from this important exporting country in recent weeks and Chicago soya beans have increased from $11.50/bushel to $13/bu since 8 December. However, talks in recent days have since ended this wages-related dispute.

Looking back at 2020, the French MATIF December 2020 price was broadly flat within the €182 and €190/t band, with occasional spikes or dips.

Record production but falling stocks

For much of 2020, the market expected record global wheat and maize production. However, things began to change in early September when the wheat harvest was largely finished. Australian production was to be up considerably, but there was varying news from Russia and lower EU output.

Global harvest was surplus to demand then, but falling. But while final estimates were not as big as anticipated, global wheat production may still be at a record high for 2020/21.

This will result in record end of season stocks of 292mt (up 13mt), 100mt higher than a decade ago.

For much of 2020, maize was also forecast to have a record production year. Altered area in the US and weather events dented output prospects.

However, this still looks like being a record global maize harvest, but concerns remain regarding the impact of dryness in South America, especially on Brazil’s safrinha maize crop.

However, high demand has left a supply deficit which is expected to see global maize stocks fall to 274.6mt from an estimated 297.7mt at the end of last season. It is also worth noting that these stock levels were 369.4mt at the end of the 2016/17 marketing year.

Given the surplus of wheat and the deficit of maize, total global grain stocks are now expected to be down 2.2mt to 616.3mt at the end of this marketing year.

This is offering some support to markets, but they are still very well supplied for the year ahead.

Native prices

Native prices carry a slightly firmer tone as the year ends. Nearby wheat is put at around €225 to €227/t, with barley at €196 to €198/t. Offers for May continue to be difficult, with very few willing to pay a premium for positions that far out, given that all forward contract positions are lower than current levels.

Prices for November are also slightly stronger, with wheat at €195-plus per tonne and barley now at €180-plus per tonne.