Grain Trends: fall continues for cereals and oilseed rape

Grain prices continued to fall this week. The Matif wheat price for December closed on Friday at €240.75/t.

That was a drop of €7.75/t in the week and it continued its decline this week. That price was at €237.50/t at the time of going to print.

In the UK, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) is negative on prices in the near term and in the next few months.

Competitive grain supplies from the Black Sea continue to put pressure on prices. The renewal date for the Black Sea grain corridor is 18 May and this may have an impact on prices.

Crop condition

In other parts of the world, crop condition is improving in the US. Corn planting progress is normal for the time of year, while soya bean planting is ahead of its average for the time of year.

Seventy-two percent of winter wheat remains in very poor to fair condition.

Reports are that Poland and other neighbouring countries of Ukraine, which had imposed bans or had considered imposing bans on Ukrainian imports, will lift these bans after agreeing a deal with the EU to allow transit of these products through the countries.

The Financial Times reported that wheat, maize, oilseed and sunflower seed will only enter these countries en route to other destinations.

Oilseeds

The oilseed rape price for August dropped by €19.50/t last week to €438.25/t on Friday 28 April and was at €437.25/t on Wednesday afternoon.

Stratégie Grain has increased its yield forecast for oilseed rape in the EU27.

It placed rapeseed production at 20 million tonnes, up 500,000t from the previous month’s estimate.

The rise comes due to good weather conditions in most of Europe for oilseed rape crops and is also due to an increased area of the crop being planted.

Outlook

While the outlook on prices at present is not particularly good, given where input prices are, the next few weeks will be crucial weather wise. It will be important to keep an eye on events that may affect supply.

Native prices

Prices continue to fall as farmers plant and some still have stock in sheds from the 2022 harvest. See the tillage pages 36-38 for crop area and production estimates for 2023.

This week saw spot prices for wheat and barley fall again.

Barley was at approximately €240/t and wheat was at €250/t.

November prices are somewhere at or below €235/t for barley and new-crop maize is trading slightly above this price. Feed barley into Belfast last week had a spot price of approximately £226/t, while feed wheat was at £236/t.