Grain prices increased this week as concerns over dry weather and war affected markets.

Looking at the Matif wheat price for December, it closed last week at €236.50/t. On Wednesday afternoon this week, it had increased to €242.75/t.

Corn prices also increased. The November French price went from €247/t on 17 July to €257.25/t on Wednesday afternoon 22 July.

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November French rapeseed was at €555/t on the same day. It was more steady this week, but has increased in the last few weeks.

War and reduced yields, such as sunflower yields in Europe, are likely affecting these markets.

US soybean prices have also increased and may be affecting markets as well.

Prices in the US and the UK were also up, with the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reporting the highest “nearby” contract price for almost two years.

The AHDB reported average winter barley yields of 8.28t/ha in its recommended list trials, some 1.65t/ha below the five-year average. Average winter oat yields were 7.73t/ha in the oat trials, some 1.31t/ha below the five-year average.

As dry conditions continue across Europe, more feed and forage are being used and this could affect markets with more demand and a possible reduced supply for winter time.

Argus Media reported that the French wheat crop is down 7.6% on 2025. This is estimated from a survey it carried out.

The survey placed the average French wheat yield at 6.67t/ha (2.7t/ac). This is dried wheat. Harvest of wheat is almost complete.

Export channels are also reported to be disrupted in the Black Sea region, which will cause supply concerns in the market. The situations in the Middle East and in the Black Sea are affecting markets due to uncertainty.

Teagasc outlook

The Teagasc outlook report this week predicted “no change in harvest price in 2026 relative to 2025 and farmgate prices for the second week of July were on a par with 2025 prices”.

It noted that there is harvest clearance pressure in the market at present from high ending stocks from the 2025/2026 marketing year.

In more positive news, Teagasc said: “It is expected that prices may begin to rise after the summer period, driven by expected inventory declines in the 2026/27 marketing year and higher production costs for the 2027 harvest.

“Marketing year averages for cereal prices are all forecast higher in 2026/27 than in 2025/26.”

The report predicted that average market based gross margins per hectare would decrease.

Teagasc forecast that average tillage farm incomes will be below €45,000 on tillage farms in 2026 and below €40,000 on specialist tillage farms for the year.