The new study received by the Agriculture Committee of the European Parliament forecasts that Ireland’s GDP would fall by 3.4% as a direct result of tariffs and trade barriers emerging if the UK leaves the EU without a replacement trade agreement, and up to 9.4% when additional difficulties such as trading with Europe through a non-EU Britain would create.
“This is explained by a drop in Irish agri-food exports to the UK and to the rest of the world, including EU27 countries as Irish production relies heavily on imported intermediates from the UK,” the authors of the report, French-based economists group CEPII, wrote.
Ireland would lose 16% to 21% of its agri-food added value (the wealth created by the industry) under default WTO trade rules with the UK, the study found. This is multiple times the impact suffered by any other country.
The impact would be most severe on the dairy sector, with value added falling by 45%, and in the beef industry, where it would drop by 26%. The authors found that these figures, obtained from computer models simulating trade flows, confirm earlier estimates from Teagasc.
Ireland deserves particular attention
Beyond the loss of sales to the UK, the tight integration of the Irish and British food industries would inflate production costs in Ireland, with food production prices rising by 2%. This would make Irish products less competitive elsewhere, the economists warn.
“As a consequence, Ireland deserves particular attention when considering redistributive policies to mitigate Brexit’s negative impacts,” they conclude.
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East-west solution needed for Irish beef and cheese in Brexit talks
Full coverage: Brexit
The new study received by the Agriculture Committee of the European Parliament forecasts that Ireland’s GDP would fall by 3.4% as a direct result of tariffs and trade barriers emerging if the UK leaves the EU without a replacement trade agreement, and up to 9.4% when additional difficulties such as trading with Europe through a non-EU Britain would create.
“This is explained by a drop in Irish agri-food exports to the UK and to the rest of the world, including EU27 countries as Irish production relies heavily on imported intermediates from the UK,” the authors of the report, French-based economists group CEPII, wrote.
Ireland would lose 16% to 21% of its agri-food added value (the wealth created by the industry) under default WTO trade rules with the UK, the study found. This is multiple times the impact suffered by any other country.
The impact would be most severe on the dairy sector, with value added falling by 45%, and in the beef industry, where it would drop by 26%. The authors found that these figures, obtained from computer models simulating trade flows, confirm earlier estimates from Teagasc.
Ireland deserves particular attention
Beyond the loss of sales to the UK, the tight integration of the Irish and British food industries would inflate production costs in Ireland, with food production prices rising by 2%. This would make Irish products less competitive elsewhere, the economists warn.
“As a consequence, Ireland deserves particular attention when considering redistributive policies to mitigate Brexit’s negative impacts,” they conclude.
Read more
Read the full report
East-west solution needed for Irish beef and cheese in Brexit talks
Full coverage: Brexit
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