Last week’s front-page story featured the both the IFA and INHFA telling the Government not to touch ANC payments.
They might be optional under the latest proposal agreed by the ministerial council Martin Heydon currently chairs, but they are mandatory as far as the farm organisations are concerned.
That’s understandable. The ANC scheme, and the Disadvantaged Areas Scheme that preceded it, have been a key part of farm supports for a number of decades. But fears around the future of the ANC are only a taste of what is to come.
The cut in the CAP budget is so massive that all current schemes can’t be maintained, something will have to give.
The news cycle is dominated this week by the on-again/off again pay talks between Government and public sector trade unions.
Further industrial action seems inevitable unless a pay agreement delivers an acceptable increase in wages.
Everyone recognises that families are struggling with the rising cost of living. No-one is begrudging a pay rise for teachers, nurses, gardaí and even Department of Agriculture inspectors.
But farmers can be forgiven for wondering how the same Government can stand over a cut in the budget for farming. Not just a cut, a 24% cut.
That means for every four euro coming into farming at present, one will vanish in 2028. And 2028 is now only 14 months away.
Farmers have not seen their supports benchmarked in recent decades, they have been losing value in real terms due to inflation. But at least overall CAP funding has been steady for the last 25 years through the last three reforms right back to decoupling.
Power
Of course, the Government itself has little power within the overall EU. When Micheál Martin said that elections in France and Germany next year could completely destabilise the European Union, he was voicing widely held fears. The National Rally in France and the AfD in Germany have been hostile to the EU. Both have recently softened their rhetoric on their rise to the top of the polls. The AfD no longer openly advocates leaving the euro, for instance.
However, to see what far-right leaders do when in power, we only have to look across the Atlantic. Donald Trump has radically altered the relationship between the United States and Europe. We probably do need a deal signed off before a Trump-like figure emerges as the leader of a major European power. The problem is, the only deal on the table will see farmers taking it in the neck. Martin Heydon described the programme agreement by ministers as “a milestone”. Without sufficient funding, the next CAP is more likely to prove a millstone.
