The number of sheep drafted off farms in Northern Ireland in 2022 is set increase by over 50,000 head and could reach 80,000 head higher when the final end-of-year figures are tallied.

As detailed in Table 1 below, the sheep kill up to week beginning 18 December is running at 449,124 head.

This is just 10,909 head lower than in 2021, despite three weeks kill figures left to include.

When these are taken into account, throughput for 2022 should be in the region of 10,000 head higher than in 2021.

The increase in throughput is being driven by an increase in hogget and lamb throughput, with the ewe and ram kill of 27,032 head up to the final three weeks of the year running 3,800 lower.

Increased exports

The lower level of ewe throughput is likely attributable to more ewes being exported live to Britain.

Analysis of monthly data published by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) shows 80,678 sheep exported live to Britain in the first 11 months of the year. This is 33,042 head higher than in 2021, as detailed in Table 2.

In contrast the number of sheep exported to Britain for direct slaughter has reduced from 32,157 head in 2021 to 23,420 head for the year to date in 2022.

This is detailed in Figure 1, which shows a sharp increase in this route to market in 2021.

It is likely that this figure will remain the same until year-end, with no sheep exported to Britain for direct slaughter in the last 12 weeks.

Higher numbers travelling south

Exports for direct slaughter and to farms in Ireland are also running higher year on year.

The number of sheep exported for direct slaughter is running at 317,677 head, with three weeks figures left to include. This is 2,797 head lower than for the full year in 2021 and is over 50,000 head lower than in 2020 as reflected in Figure 2.

The number of sheep exported to farms is detailed in Table 3 and is running 23,450 head higher than in 2021.

December figures also need to be taken into account, but these are generally in the region of 3,000 to 4,000 head and could be marginally higher in 2022.

Carryover of sheep

Reports vary significantly on the likelihood of higher numbers being carried over into the new year.

Some industry opinions reckon the higher numbers exported to Britain are largely ewes, which tallies with reports of exporters benefiting from an exceptionally strong cull ewe trade for much of the year.

Other opinions point to a higher lamb crop on the ground in 2022 and more lambs possibly remaining on farms due to higher feed costs and challenging weather for finishing lambs in recent weeks.

However, it is not envisaged that there will be a major carryover of lambs and time will quickly tell if this materialises.