The Hilton Hotel Templepatrick in Northern Ireland was the venue for the 2018 Northern Ireland Spring Conference on Thursday, 12 April. The conference was hosted by the Irish Farmers Journal in association with The Andersons Centre. The theme of the conference was the economic performance of UK and NI agriculture, Brexit policy and outlook for farming. Consumer trends, sector updates and future profitability, as well as the potential for structural change, were also considered.

Graham Redman and Michael Haverty of Andersons presented followed by a panel where they were joined by David Wright, Justin McCarthy and Phelim O’Neill from the Irish Farmers Journal.

Global wheat market and UK net grain

On the topic of arable, Graham Redman spoke about grain, with a particular focus on wheat. Global wheat production is at a record high, with estimated 755m metric tonnes (MMT) for 2017/2018, which is 200 MMT more than in 2003/2004. Wheat stocks are also expected to reach a record new high with 255 MMT, which is double what they were in 2007/2008.

“The balance between wheat imports and exports has been shifting. Imports are increasing as wheat demand has been growing, specifically in the poultry feed and bioethanol production sectors,” Redman said.

More striking is the steady reduction of wheat exports from the UK of about 4,000,000t in 1991, to estimated 1,500,000t in 2018.

Cereal markets and wheat future prices

“There is plenty of grain available at present, hence prospects for global prices look unspectacular. Yet current cereals prices offer the opportunity for profitable production for efficient producers. “

Wheat prices have been falling since mid-2017, though they are now at the centre of their historical price range.