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Ciarán Lenehan’s recent visit to the Norway-Sweden border revealed that in one of the most seamless borders imaginable between neighbouring countries with a long land border, there is an average truck delay of 15 minutes. This is because Norway is outside the customs union, which means checks are needed on the movement of goods between the two countries.
It is clear they have maximised the use of technology and operate shared customs inspections at border points to minimise inconvenience. Still, there is a delay which, though small on an individual basis, really adds up when the number of commercial border crossings are counted.
Type of trade
There is also a huge difference in the type of trade undertaken between Sweden and Norway and that between Ireland and the UK including Northern Ireland. In terms of value, trade between Sweden and Norway amounts to the equivalent of €16bn annually, with Sweden selling three times more to Norway than they buy from them. Most notably, with the huge tariffs on agricultural produce, there is virtually no trade between the two in this category. The fact that they are both net importers of food is also a reason for absence of trade.
Swedish sales to Norway are predominately cars, chemical, furniture, machinery and telecoms, while Norway’s sales to Sweden include fish and energy-based products including oil, gas and electricity.
Completely different
Of course trade on the island of Ireland is completely different and dominated by agriculture. Milk and sheep come south for processing, cattle and pigs go north and, of course, beef and cheese are exported in huge quantities to Britain.
It is also common for the processing of this produce to involve transit within companies either side of the border.
Cattle imported from the south by a factory in Northern Ireland are often returned to the Republic of Ireland for retail packing and sent back north again for sale in supermarkets.
Even if tariffs were favourable, the logistics of border checks would be hugely disruptive for this business.
Value of trade
Irish-UK trade is worth €32bn annually, twice the value of trade between Sweden and Norway, with Ireland importing more (€19bn) than it exports (€13bn), of which €4.4bn is food and drink. Of the UK sales to the Republic of Ireland, £3.4bn (€3.8bn) came from Northern Ireland, which is just €800m less than Norway’s total sales to Sweden.
What is also notable comparing border crossings between Sweden and Norway with the island of Ireland is the relatively low number of vehicles. This is because of the nature of the goods traded. Oil, gas and electricity aren’t transported in vans and trucks in the same way that a bakery in Donegal might be supplying a shop in Co Tyrone or a farmer in Co Louth might take a couple of cattle in a trailer to an abattoir in Newry.
In total, the Irish Revenue Commissioners estimate in an internal report that was leaked in October 2017 that there were 14,000 commercial vehicle crossings on the Irish border every day. If we were to assume that a tariff arrangement was found that didn’t curtail trade and that the average time taken was 15 minutes, the same as between Sweden and Norway, the logistics would be a nightmare.
This explains why nobody wants a “hard border” on the island of Ireland yet if the UK is outside the customs union and the Republic of Ireland is inside, it is difficult to see how it can be avoided.
EU/UK tensions
The tension between the EU and UK over the past week was visibly demonstrated by the absence of the usual joint press conference between EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Brexit minister David Davis. The impression has been given that the December agreement is unravelling as the EU moves to put it into legal language.
The Irish border is the focus, with Barnier making it clear that if the UK is outside the customs union then checks are inevitable. Looking at the Norway-Sweden border it is clear that much preparation work is necessary in order to be ready in the event of this scenario arising post-Brexit. Current commentary suggests that a two-year transition agreement cannot be assumed, yet there is no evidence of physical arrangements being made to facilitate any type of a border scrutiny.
The border crossing visited by the Irish Farmers Journal in Sweden is one of 10 with Norway that have a customs facility. It handles around 300 lorries per day whereas the MI border crossing in Ireland has 5,772 commercial vehicles crossing daily. There is no point looking at the Norway-Sweden model.
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