Numbers continue to increase for global wheat production and stocks, but there are likely concerns already for 2018.
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Futures prices weakened again last week following a rise in previous weeks. It seems that lack of rain, or the forecast of rain, in the US and in Argentina was a major factor in the fall.
Both maize and wheat futures have been affected. Dryness had delayed maize planting in both Argentina and South Africa and this may result in decreased crop areas relative to predictions. This, plus grain yield, could result in reduced production according to the recent AHDB report.
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The impact of dryness on US winter wheat seems more definite, with an increasing proportion of crops rated as poor to very poor, according to the USDA. The most recent FAO figures suggest that wheat production was even higher than other recent estimates and that even higher wheat stocks seem likely.
European oilseed rape futures have been largely static. Sterling prices are down (£295/t delivered Erith and down £18.50/t since the start of the year – AHDB). Chicago soya bean futures have been dropping as a consequence of the recent weather in South America.
Native prices remain static at around €175/t for wheat and barley out to May. No change for new-crop either, with €170 to €172/t suggested for wheat and €165 to €176/t for barley.
UK delivered prices are similar or down slightly on last week. The AHDB put delivered wheat at £139/t to east Anglia and £149/t to Yorkshire. Ex-farm prices were £138.8/t for wheat and £127.90/t for barley.
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Futures prices weakened again last week following a rise in previous weeks. It seems that lack of rain, or the forecast of rain, in the US and in Argentina was a major factor in the fall.
Both maize and wheat futures have been affected. Dryness had delayed maize planting in both Argentina and South Africa and this may result in decreased crop areas relative to predictions. This, plus grain yield, could result in reduced production according to the recent AHDB report.
The impact of dryness on US winter wheat seems more definite, with an increasing proportion of crops rated as poor to very poor, according to the USDA. The most recent FAO figures suggest that wheat production was even higher than other recent estimates and that even higher wheat stocks seem likely.
European oilseed rape futures have been largely static. Sterling prices are down (£295/t delivered Erith and down £18.50/t since the start of the year – AHDB). Chicago soya bean futures have been dropping as a consequence of the recent weather in South America.
Native prices remain static at around €175/t for wheat and barley out to May. No change for new-crop either, with €170 to €172/t suggested for wheat and €165 to €176/t for barley.
UK delivered prices are similar or down slightly on last week. The AHDB put delivered wheat at £139/t to east Anglia and £149/t to Yorkshire. Ex-farm prices were £138.8/t for wheat and £127.90/t for barley.
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