Despite some recent stability in the beef price, the Scottish market is still 4% back on the start of 2018, according to Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) analysis.

The average price report for an R4L steer is around £3.62/kg, compared with £3.77/kg in 2017, and equates to a drop of over £55/head.

This is higher than the 3% average fall in prices across Europe, but less than the 6% cut seen in the Republic of Ireland over the last 12 months.

A global increase in cattle slaughtering in the second half of 2018, along with a crash in the value of hides, has contributed to suppressed prices in recent months.

Also an extremely competitive retail market for meat, both in terms of price and volume, has constrained farmgate prices.

Retailer price cuts have been used to stimulate demand, with the average consumer price of UK beef in November 2018 down 1.4% when compared with 2017,

The retail price for beef is also lower in Ireland, although across Europe as a whole the retail price of beef is actually up 1%.

2019 outlook

Scottish beef supply looks set to remain tight in 2019, as calf registrations dipped by 0.25% in 2017 and in the 11 months to the end of November 2018 had fallen a further 2.5%.

Cow slaughtering across the UK up to November 2018 ran ahead of previous years’ levels, and it seems unlikely that these volumes will be maintained through 2019 unless a further decline in breeding stock numbers is to occur.

The June 2018 census across Europe reported a decline in the breeding cow herd, with dairy cow numbers down 0.5% and beef cow numbers down 1.4%.

Out of the five largest European beef herds, only Spain showed an increase in numbers.

France, the UK, Ireland and Germany all showed declines.

A smaller breeding herd points towards lower production in the coming months.

However, global supply might remain unchanged as the USDA expects increased production in the United States, Brazil and Argentina.