Teagasc has released crop costs and returns data for 2027. The figures are estimates and some costs to keep an eye on in particular are machinery running costs and fertiliser. Fertiliser costs have been rising lately and as they make up a substantial amount of input costs, farmers should sub in their own amounts here.

Price is the other big question mark. Some farmers may sell amounts of grain during the year, but the majority do not and it is a long time until next harvest.

At present, grain prices are in as €220/t for feed wheat, €210/t for feed barley, €200 for feed oats and €240/t for malting barley.

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Winter wheat is a crop that some farmers were disappointed with this year. It was hit with take-all and virus in some fields. Winter wheat is the most expensive cereal crop to grow, with total variable costs of €772/ac. Winter barley was the second most expensive crop to grow on €726/ac.

Spring barley, oats and malting barley have similar costs to each other, in the range of €569-579/ac, with spring wheat at €623/ac.

It should be noted that straw income is not included in the breakeven yield, but it is included in the gross margin figure. BISS payments are not included in any of the figures.

Breakeven yields

Farmers should look across at the breaeven yields for all crops and ask if those yields are achievable or not. Do you reach those yields each year and, more importantly, do you reach higher than those yields to make a profit?

In the figures, 3.5t/ac is the breakeven yield for winter wheat, but 4.4t/ac is the target yield – at a price of €220/t, it would return a gross margin of €297/t based on Teagasc costs and returns. Winter wheat is the most profitable cereal by far when it hits Teagasc’s target yields. However, if winter wheat goes wrong, then there can be big losses. It’s important to have it in a good slot in the rotation. A first wheat after a break crop has potential to yield very well.

Looking at winter feed barley, the total variable costs come to €726/ac. The breakeven yield at a grain price of €210/t is 3.5t/ac and the target yield is 4t/ac, delivering a gross margin of €235/t.

The total variable costs for spring barley come to €579/ac. The breakeven yield at €210/ac is 2.8t/ac. Teagasc’s target yield is 3.2t/ac and this would deliver a gross margin of €194/ac.

Break crops

You can look at the full breakdown of costs and returns for cereals in Table 1, based on current estimates. Winter rye is included in the break crops’ table. At a target yield of 4t/ac, the gross margin works out at €263/ac for winter rye.

Looking at the other break crops, most outperform all cereals. Winter wheat comes in with a higher gross margin than peas or beans.

However, peas and beans beat all of the other cereal crops at target yields.

Potatoes at a yield of 18t/ac come out on top for profit by far, while maize and beet follow (see Table 2).

Farmers with oilseed rape planted and some sold ahead at €500/t will need to yield 2t/ac to deliver €409/ac. This is very achievable with current winter oilseed rape varieties.