Grain market: Price fall flattens but sentiment still bearish
The price fall appears to have flattened for the moment but time appears to be running out for a big global weather event to significantly reverse production estimates.
Good crops prospects all around Europe are mirrored in most other areas of the world.
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Grain prices continue in a depressed state, with the London LIFFE feed wheat price back to £140/t having been above £160/t two months ago. Prospects for a good harvest in the northern hemisphere continue and time is slipping by for a significant weather event to intervene. This fact is adding to the bearish sentiment in the market but no one knows what will happen in the different corners of the world before this grain gets into store.
While there is no guarantee of harvest outcome, growers would be foolish to dismiss this sentiment. Our crops look good, British crops look good and European crops look good. This is all grain that has to be consumed somewhere and an early harvest would increase short-term supplies. This year will see British grain returning to the export market but currency will have an impact on its competitiveness.
Russia, and specifically the Volga valley region, is perhaps the only area where production problems are currently envisaged. Drought continues to be an issue here and production and export capacity could suffer. Export estimates have already been reduced. While market sentiment is generally bearish, prices appears to have stabilised, for the moment at least. The lower prices appear to have encouraged buyers and this seems to have put a bottom on the price fall.
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Native prices are broadly similar to last week, with spot wheat €198 to €200/t and spot barley €175/t. November wheat is quoted at €186/t with barley at €172 to €173/t. Late last week, Glanbia offered €187/t for November and €172/t for barley and on the same day Dairygold offered €138/t for green barley and €149/t for green wheat for harvest.
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Title: Grain market: Price fall flattens but sentiment still bearish
The price fall appears to have flattened for the moment but time appears to be running out for a big global weather event to significantly reverse production estimates.
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Grain prices continue in a depressed state, with the London LIFFE feed wheat price back to £140/t having been above £160/t two months ago. Prospects for a good harvest in the northern hemisphere continue and time is slipping by for a significant weather event to intervene. This fact is adding to the bearish sentiment in the market but no one knows what will happen in the different corners of the world before this grain gets into store.
While there is no guarantee of harvest outcome, growers would be foolish to dismiss this sentiment. Our crops look good, British crops look good and European crops look good. This is all grain that has to be consumed somewhere and an early harvest would increase short-term supplies. This year will see British grain returning to the export market but currency will have an impact on its competitiveness.
Russia, and specifically the Volga valley region, is perhaps the only area where production problems are currently envisaged. Drought continues to be an issue here and production and export capacity could suffer. Export estimates have already been reduced. While market sentiment is generally bearish, prices appears to have stabilised, for the moment at least. The lower prices appear to have encouraged buyers and this seems to have put a bottom on the price fall.
Native prices are broadly similar to last week, with spot wheat €198 to €200/t and spot barley €175/t. November wheat is quoted at €186/t with barley at €172 to €173/t. Late last week, Glanbia offered €187/t for November and €172/t for barley and on the same day Dairygold offered €138/t for green barley and €149/t for green wheat for harvest.
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