The latest unilateral initiative by the UK government to deal with the Northern Ireland protocol may be politically convenient in Westminster and with pro-Brexit politicians.

However, in solving operational issues in trade between Britain and Northern Ireland, it jeopardises the entire Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the EU and UK, which is what enables Irish agri-food exports to enter the UK market tariff-free.

Unsurprisingly, the EU has rejected out of hand the idea that the UK would unilaterally change a negotiated agreement and has said that it will respond with all measures at its disposal should the initiative proceed.

Prolonged process

The fact that there is a prolonged process between this week’s announcement by the UK foreign secretary Liz Truss in parliament and legislation coming into effect creates a window to allow negotiations take place.

These have been ongoing at a glacial pace but perhaps the events of this week will serve to refocus minds.

The ultimate consequences of failure by the UK and EU to secure agreement on the protocol is the potential collapse of the entire TCA, preceded no doubt by a series of tariff penalties.

In this worst-case scenario, it is Irish farmers who will be left with the biggest costs on the EU side, with tariffs potentially well in excess of €1bn annually.

Hopefully it will never come to this but we should be prepared for the worst. After all, unthinkable events have happened in recent times and we should never assume the TCA couldn’t collapse just because it shouldn’t happen.