The European Commission held a two-day conference this week on the outlook for EU agricultural markets and income from 2017-2030. With EU farm incomes forecast to fall 20% in real terms and numbers employed in the sector to reduce by 28%, there are clearly going to be challenges ahead for rural towns and villages across the EU.

Nowhere will these challenges be more evident than in Ireland, where agri food is one of the most important indigenous manufacturing sectors, accounting for around 10% of total employment – with the vast majority of the 170,000 jobs located in rural towns and villages.

As Paul Mooney reports, the Commission identifies the Irish suckler herd to be most at risk over the next 12 years. While a 10% reduction is forecast in suckler cow numbers across the EU15, the Irish suckler herd is forecast to contract by between 20-30% over the period, or the equivalent of over 200,000 head.

Irish agriculture is no different to any business in that the future will always present challenges. However, the normal business response would be to design a clear strategy as to how these challenges can be minimised. Central to such a strategy would be a set of objectives aligned to a vision for the business.

So, what is our vision for agriculture and, by association, rural Ireland? In his address to delegates at the EU outlook conference, European Commissioner for Budget and Human Resources Günther Oettinger stated that the EU vision is for 50% of people to live in rural areas. Perhaps more important was the fact that Oettinger recognised the importance of a well-funded CAP in delivering on this vision.

While the conference painted a bleak picture for the agricultural sector, there were more positive overtures in relation to the importance of maintaining the CAP budget. With negations due to intensify on the CAP budget and policy direction in 2018, it is encouraging to see that European Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan is gaining increased political recognition for the important role CAP plays in supporting farmers, the environment and consumers. Advancing this will be critical if member states are to agree to increase their contribution to the EU budget from 1% of Gross National Income to 1.1-1.2% to bridge the deficit created by Brexit.

Meanwhile, Hogan’s commitment to give greater implementation authority to member states in relation to CAP will provide opportunities and challenges for Ireland. While there will be the opportunity to tailor schemes to suit Irish conditions, there will also be challenges in relation to the distribution of supports. It will be much more difficult for governments to blame Brussels. The risk is that CAP becomes a political tool where payments are distributed based on wide appeal rather than what is right for the industry.

While Ireland is likely to have a viable dairy industry long-term, as things stand, the same cannot be said for tillage or suckler beef. They are an important part of rural Irish society and the time has come for Government to decide if they are sufficiently important to prioritise when it comes to using the new national powers that will be available in the 2020 CAP. The option will be available to target CAP resources to these areas, making them more viable. However, a debate has to take place to decide if there is sufficient benefit to society and the rural community to invest in these sectors.

The alternative is that there will be a continuous realignment in farming with all land suitable for dairying moving that way and more marginal smaller farms giving way to forestry. That brings with it the end of rural life as we have known it in Ireland, based on close-knit communities and small farms. These are the drivers of commercial activity from the village store, livestock market and agricultural contractor – and several businesses in between.

If Government decides this is the most suitable direction for rural Ireland, farmers need to know. Alternatively, we can decide the rural way of life is worth investment. If that is the intention, investment needs to be targeted, and not in a populist way that has no significant impact.