With the Mercosur trade deal ratification process under way, European Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Christophe Hansen is leading a trade mission to Brazil starting on Monday 20 October and returning on Friday 25.

While the mission has been planned for some time with invitations to participate closing back in July, the mission is timely given the sensitivities surrounding the ratification process.

Brazil is the largest economy in South America and accounts for around 70% of the entire GDP of the Mercosur countries. It is the world’s largest beef exporter and are expected to set another new volume record at around 3,000 tonnes (t) this year.

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This is more than twice the total exported by Australia and the United States combined, the second- and third-largest beef exporting countries.

The issue of South American beef in the Mercosur trade deal and risk to Irish and EU farmers is well documented at this stage, but this mission will be focusing on the opportunities that are believed to exist for EU exports to Brazil.

The commissioner will be joined by a range of business and industry organisations from across the EU, including Bord Bia, Ornua and Intrepid Spirits from Ireland.

DG Agri publicity says that the mission will “focus on providing market intelligence in the food and beverage sector, business-to-business (B2B) activities, as well as retail and site visits”.

It is described as offering “the representatives of the European agri-food sector with an excellent platform to discover the Brazilian market and to make direct business contacts in São Paulo with B2B professionals from across Brazil”.

It also describes Brazil as “a major destination for EU agri-food exports [that] remains largely untapped". EU agri-food exports to the region represent currently only about 6% in value of all EU exports.

Current exports to Mercosur countries

In 2024, EU countries exported €1.2bn of product to the Mercosur countries, most of which isn’t associated with Ireland. Half of this was accounted for by olive oil exports, wine accounted for €238m, other beverages €259m and exports of chocolates were worth €109m.

The Mercosur trade deal is expected to create some opportunities for dairy exports. It has secured a 30,000t cheese quota and a 10,000t milk powder quota, which will, over a phased period, reduce the tariff from 28% to zero.

There will also be a 5,000t infant formula quota, which will have a phased reduction in tariff from the current 18% to zero.

Comment – agriculture isn’t big winner in Mercosur

There is nothing wrong with the agriculture commissioner heading to Brazil, but our expectations for sales to the country should be realistic.

Being the world’s largest exporter with prices significantly lower than in the EU means that we won't be selling any beef there.

There may be some opportunities for dairy, but if we look at the Mercosur tariff-free quotas, 30,000t for cheese is just over 10% of the 290,000t of cheese Ireland alone exported in 2024.

Similarly with infant formula, a 5,000t quota is tiny in the context of Ireland exporting 113,000t last year. There may be an opportunity for some dairy export business, but it will be marginal. Drinks are a different matter and there should be opportunities for European wines and indeed whiskey could also benefit.

The real potential for EU exports to Brazil and their Mercosur neighbours lie in technology, pharma and autos - the main trade in agriculture will be the other way.

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