In March this year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast that Brazil’s beef exports would decline this year.
However, after the first four months, the indications are that they are continuing to increase.
In April, ABIEC data shows that Brazil exported 288,700 tonnes (t) of beef, which is a 5.3% or 14,600t increase on the same month last year and a 6.6% increase on the previous month this year.
What is even more striking is the increase in the value of Brazilian beef exports in April. Revenue was $1.719bn (€1.469bn), which is 29% higher year on year and up just under 16% on the March value.
April’s export volumes bring Brazil’s total beef exports for the first four months to 1,091,000t - a 14.6% increase on the 951,500t shipped in the same period last year. The value was just over $6bn (€5.1bn), which is almost one third more than in the same period in 2025.
Markets
China remains Brazil’s largest beef export market and took 474,200t over the first four months of the year, which is an increase of almost 29% year on year.
With the 1.1m tonne quota allocated on a first-come, first-served basis, there is an urgency on the part of exporters to secure as much business as possible before it is exhausted and no doubt this is a driver of sales.
Two other markets for Brazil’s beef exports stand out. The United States is its second-largest export market, taking 149,800t in the first four months of the year, up from 135,829t in the same period last year.
The other market which is of particular interest to Irish farmers is the European Union, to which Brazil exported 34,700t of beef in the first four months, a 17% increase on the same period last year.
Comment – still waiting for the reduction
Brazil’s beef exports so far this year are performing the opposite to what was expected. Instead of a decline, there is an increase, but they could be front-loaded as exporters seek to maximise their volumes to China ahead of the 1.1m-tonne quota being filled.
There is also a significant pull factor coming from both the US and EU, where production has been in decline, thereby creating an opportunity for increased imports.
The other striking factor is how the value of Brazilian beef exports has increased in recent months, with values being achieved that were last reached in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
From 1 May, Brazil can begin to utilise its share of the 11,200t quota that is available for the remainder of this year under the Mercosur-EU trade deal.
US trade policy on beef imports has been volatile recently and even if the tariff currently in place continues, Brazil’s beef will still be competitive in the US market.
The great concern in the latter part of this year is what will happen when the China quota is exhausted. It could be that Brazil’s exports will reduce sharply at that point and return to the levels expected by the USDA in its forecast.
Read more
Potential EU ban on meat imports from Brazil
USDA forecasts sharp drop in China’s beef imports
Editorial: Brazil beef ban the right decision
In March this year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast that Brazil’s beef exports would decline this year.
However, after the first four months, the indications are that they are continuing to increase.
In April, ABIEC data shows that Brazil exported 288,700 tonnes (t) of beef, which is a 5.3% or 14,600t increase on the same month last year and a 6.6% increase on the previous month this year.
What is even more striking is the increase in the value of Brazilian beef exports in April. Revenue was $1.719bn (€1.469bn), which is 29% higher year on year and up just under 16% on the March value.
April’s export volumes bring Brazil’s total beef exports for the first four months to 1,091,000t - a 14.6% increase on the 951,500t shipped in the same period last year. The value was just over $6bn (€5.1bn), which is almost one third more than in the same period in 2025.
Markets
China remains Brazil’s largest beef export market and took 474,200t over the first four months of the year, which is an increase of almost 29% year on year.
With the 1.1m tonne quota allocated on a first-come, first-served basis, there is an urgency on the part of exporters to secure as much business as possible before it is exhausted and no doubt this is a driver of sales.
Two other markets for Brazil’s beef exports stand out. The United States is its second-largest export market, taking 149,800t in the first four months of the year, up from 135,829t in the same period last year.
The other market which is of particular interest to Irish farmers is the European Union, to which Brazil exported 34,700t of beef in the first four months, a 17% increase on the same period last year.
Comment – still waiting for the reduction
Brazil’s beef exports so far this year are performing the opposite to what was expected. Instead of a decline, there is an increase, but they could be front-loaded as exporters seek to maximise their volumes to China ahead of the 1.1m-tonne quota being filled.
There is also a significant pull factor coming from both the US and EU, where production has been in decline, thereby creating an opportunity for increased imports.
The other striking factor is how the value of Brazilian beef exports has increased in recent months, with values being achieved that were last reached in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
From 1 May, Brazil can begin to utilise its share of the 11,200t quota that is available for the remainder of this year under the Mercosur-EU trade deal.
US trade policy on beef imports has been volatile recently and even if the tariff currently in place continues, Brazil’s beef will still be competitive in the US market.
The great concern in the latter part of this year is what will happen when the China quota is exhausted. It could be that Brazil’s exports will reduce sharply at that point and return to the levels expected by the USDA in its forecast.
Read more
Potential EU ban on meat imports from Brazil
USDA forecasts sharp drop in China’s beef imports
Editorial: Brazil beef ban the right decision
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