Global beef production is predicted to fall by 1% in 2026 to 61.6m tonnes, according to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) world markets and trade forecast.
All of the major exporters are expected to have less beef this year, with a 2% decline forecast for Brazil and a 1% decline for the US, Australia and the EU.
Mexico is expected to increase production by a substantial 11% due to the closure of the US market for live exports, which means more cattle available for slaughter.
A corresponding increase in Mexican beef exports is predicted by the USDA.
Global trade in beef is forecast to also fall in 2026, down to 13.8m tonnes ,due to the decline in production across the major exporting countries.
The report also suggests that “global trade flows are expected to undergo significant reshuffling as China, the world’s largest importer, implements a series of tariff rate quotas (TRQ) that will limit its imports, particularly from Brazil and Australia”.
This is because both these countries supplied China with several thousand tonnes of beef in 2025 above the quota that they have been allocated by China for 2026.
It is also notable that China’s beef imports this year are predicted to fall by 13% to 3.2m tonnes carcase weight equivalent (CWE).
US imports to increase
After China, the US is the world’s second-largest beef importer.
With the cattle herd at a 75-year low, imports are forecast to increase this year by 154,000t more than was predicted in the December forecast to 2.626m tonnes.
This is more than a 1m tonnes increase on the level of US beef imports in 2022, which were then 1.538m tonnes.
The other notable increase in beef imports forecast for this year is expected in the EU, with volumes expected to be 465,000t.
This is similar to last year and 60,000t more than the USDA was forecasting in December.
UK imports are expected to be slightly below 2025 levels at 390,000t, which is 20,000t less than was forecast in December.
Exports from big three to decline
The USDA is forecasting that Brazil, Australia and the US - the only countries that export over 1m tonnes annually - will export less beef this year than they did in 2025.
Brazil will export twice as much beef as the second-largest exporter Australia, with 4.275m tonnes forecast for this year.
This is 275,000t higher than was predicted in the December report by the USDA, but still below the 4.380m tonnes exported last year.
Australia’s exports have been revised down slightly from December at 2.160m tonnes, while the continued tight cattle supply in the US is expected to be reflected in its beef exports falling to 1.073m tonnes, below the 1.127m forecast in December.
Comment – little sign of reduction so far
With actual data now available for the first quarter of 2026, if there is a decline in Brazilian and Australian beef exports, it will have to come later in the year.
In the first quarter, ABIEC data shows that Brazil’s beef exports were 18% higher than in the same period last year, which MLA data shows that Australian beef exports were up by a similar amount, rising from 310,975t in the first quarter last year to 365,194t in the same period this year.
Irish beef exports don’t really go beyond the UK and EU, but what will be interesting to monitor over the course of this year is the increase of beef imports to the EU and UK that will compete with Irish beef in these markets.
*Note all weights are carcase weight equivalent
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Irish beef losing market share in UK
Big increase in Australian and Brazilian beef exports
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Global beef production is predicted to fall by 1% in 2026 to 61.6m tonnes, according to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) world markets and trade forecast.
All of the major exporters are expected to have less beef this year, with a 2% decline forecast for Brazil and a 1% decline for the US, Australia and the EU.
Mexico is expected to increase production by a substantial 11% due to the closure of the US market for live exports, which means more cattle available for slaughter.
A corresponding increase in Mexican beef exports is predicted by the USDA.
Global trade in beef is forecast to also fall in 2026, down to 13.8m tonnes ,due to the decline in production across the major exporting countries.
The report also suggests that “global trade flows are expected to undergo significant reshuffling as China, the world’s largest importer, implements a series of tariff rate quotas (TRQ) that will limit its imports, particularly from Brazil and Australia”.
This is because both these countries supplied China with several thousand tonnes of beef in 2025 above the quota that they have been allocated by China for 2026.
It is also notable that China’s beef imports this year are predicted to fall by 13% to 3.2m tonnes carcase weight equivalent (CWE).
US imports to increase
After China, the US is the world’s second-largest beef importer.
With the cattle herd at a 75-year low, imports are forecast to increase this year by 154,000t more than was predicted in the December forecast to 2.626m tonnes.
This is more than a 1m tonnes increase on the level of US beef imports in 2022, which were then 1.538m tonnes.
The other notable increase in beef imports forecast for this year is expected in the EU, with volumes expected to be 465,000t.
This is similar to last year and 60,000t more than the USDA was forecasting in December.
UK imports are expected to be slightly below 2025 levels at 390,000t, which is 20,000t less than was forecast in December.
Exports from big three to decline
The USDA is forecasting that Brazil, Australia and the US - the only countries that export over 1m tonnes annually - will export less beef this year than they did in 2025.
Brazil will export twice as much beef as the second-largest exporter Australia, with 4.275m tonnes forecast for this year.
This is 275,000t higher than was predicted in the December report by the USDA, but still below the 4.380m tonnes exported last year.
Australia’s exports have been revised down slightly from December at 2.160m tonnes, while the continued tight cattle supply in the US is expected to be reflected in its beef exports falling to 1.073m tonnes, below the 1.127m forecast in December.
Comment – little sign of reduction so far
With actual data now available for the first quarter of 2026, if there is a decline in Brazilian and Australian beef exports, it will have to come later in the year.
In the first quarter, ABIEC data shows that Brazil’s beef exports were 18% higher than in the same period last year, which MLA data shows that Australian beef exports were up by a similar amount, rising from 310,975t in the first quarter last year to 365,194t in the same period this year.
Irish beef exports don’t really go beyond the UK and EU, but what will be interesting to monitor over the course of this year is the increase of beef imports to the EU and UK that will compete with Irish beef in these markets.
*Note all weights are carcase weight equivalent
Read more
Irish beef losing market share in UK
Big increase in Australian and Brazilian beef exports
Has Brazilian beef production peaked?
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