US beef market dynamics continue to change in response to tight cattle supplies and high beef price.

Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) reports that the average carcase weight of cattle slaughtered in the US in 2025 reached an all-time high of 398kg.

The increase in carcase weights is stemming from a perfect storm of tight beef supplies, low feed costs and high beef prices.

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Beef processors are willing to accept higher carcase weights to minimise production levels, with actual production reducing by 3.6% to 11.2m tonnes.

This is in contrast to the cattle slaughter figure which fell by 6.4% in 2025 to 29.3 million head.

This is the lowest kill since 2015 and is the third consecutive year of throughput falling, with the kill running 13% lower than in 2022.

Falling rate

MLA reports that the heifer kill fell by 7% to 9.3 million head, with steer throughput down 7% to 14.5 million head.

It adds that the female slaughter rate ended the year at 48.8%, when the normal baseline figure is 47%. This suggests that the US cattle herd remains in a destock position, with high prices driving sales of cull cows and limiting heifer retention.

MLA predicts that US beef production is unlikely to increase substantially until there is significant rebuilding in the national herd.

It says that while the rate of decline has slowed, there is still no meaningful herd rebuilding, meaning the number of cattle available for slaughter remains in a downward spiral.

Australian opportunity

The cull cow slaughter also fell by 11% to just under five million head, the lowest figure since 2005. This is seen as a positive from an Australian perspective, as it means the volume of manufacturing beef produced domestically in the US is lower, creating import demand.

This is viewed as driving demand for grain-fed Australian beef in particular.