The first signs of recovery in grass growth rates are usually faster regrowth after a paddock is grazed. These green shoots are a welcome sign of recovery but it also means that the situation on farms can get more challenging.

During the dry spell when the weather is dry and grass dry matter is high cows are generally very content and happy, even when grazing low covers.

After the rain comes and recovery starts, grass dry matter drops and nitrogen uptake increases which can make grass sour, cows uneasy and generally hard to manage.

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These weeks are about holding the nerve and making sure cows go on a very long round length so that average farm cover can recover.

It’s a case of doing the sums; most farms in the south and east are behind in terms of average farm cover (AFC) by about 300kg DM/ha.

In other words, the target should be around 800kg/ha but the actual cover is around 500kg/ha. Where it goes from here all depends on the growth rate relative to demand.

Demand is how much grass is eaten per hectare per day and the growth is how much grass is grown per hectare per day.

If demand is greater than growth then AFC will drop but if demand is lower than growth then AFC will increase.

For AFC to increase by say 200kg/ha over the space of 10 days, then the difference in growth and demand needs to be 20kg/ha/day.

Therefore, if growth rates are 40kg, then demand must be 20kg/ha/day. For a farm with a stocking rate of three cows/ha, that means that the total amount of grass allowance per cow per day must be no more than 6.6kg/day.

As a diet, this probably looks something like a 6kg grass, 6kg meal and 6kg silage split for the next two weeks or so until AFC gets back to target.

The hope is that growth rates on these dry farms will increase significantly next week or the week after.

The sums change dramatically if growth rates go to 60kg or even 80kg/day for a week or more while cows are still on heavy feeding.

It’s hard to see that happening with the cold and blustery weather we have now, but past experience has shown that there is usually a rebound in growth when the rain comes.