As the country wakes up in the aftermath of the 2020 General Election, the landscape has been changed radically. I can say this with certainty even though over half the seats have yet to be filled.
This time last week Mary Lou McDonald was demanding inclusion in the leaders' debate with Leo Varadkar and Michael Martin. Now she leads the party that received the highest number of first preference votes.
The exit poll on Saturday night was stunning, showing Sinn Féin neck-and neck with the two parties who have dominated politics for a century, since they schismed from the original Sinn Féin following the Civil War. That exit poll also showed that farming didn't register as an issue influencing votes, while Brexit, such a preoccupation of Fine Gael and such a worry for farming, only registered as the issue for 1%. Climate change was cited by 6% of respondents.
As Storm Ciara buffeted the country, the winds of change blew through the count centres across Ireland.
As the results poured in, the extent of the change in voting became crystal clear. Sinn Féin topped the poll in 24 out of the 38 constituencies. with their huge surpluses transferring across left-leaning candidates and away from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. As Storm Ciara buffeted the country, the winds of change blew through the count centres across Ireland.
Impact
The surge was not just urban, but also rural. The impact was felt even in the Fine Gael stronghold of Cork South-West. Fine Gael have often held two seats in what they regard as "Michael Collins country". Now they have none, although Michael Collins the independent did top the poll. Fianna Fáil held their seat, with Christopher O'Sullivan replacing party colleague Mary Margaret O'Connor. Tillage farmer Tim Lombard led the Fine Gael charge but a strong showing by Holly Cairns, the Social Democratic candidate, coupled with Sinn Féin transfers saw her take the last seat. She is a farmer, but sounds more like a south Dublin solicitor, and as a seed saver and organic farmer, is unlikely to see eye-to-eye with the IFA on the Nitrates derogation.
Kevin O'Keeffe, son of farmer and former junior minister Ned, lost out in Cork East. Outgoing Junior MInister for Agriculture Andrew Doyle is in a dogfight in Wicklow, as are Michael D'Arcy in Wexford, and Agriculture Committee chair Pat Deering.
Farming vote
Did the farming vote also migrate from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil? They have dominated for decades. In 2015, the Irish Farmers Journal commissioned a Red C poll, which found that 48% supported Fine Gael, and 26% Fianna Fáil. Sinn Féin languished at only 6% of support, with Independents accounting for double that.
It was to rural independents that support first drifted. The Healy Rae's, Mattie McGrath, and Michael Lowry may all have been "gene pool" major party, having previously served in or sought office for one of the two big parties. Denis Naughton, Michael Fitzmaurice, and the aforementioned Collins all drew support and activists from the farming community. Verona Murphy in Wexford seems poised to join those ranks today.
The beef protests last year were strongly supported by Sinn Féin and independent politicians.
This election has seen a further, and more significant, shift. The warning signs were there for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. The beef protests last year were strongly supported by Sinn Féin and independent politicians. Anne Rabbitte's vocal and visible involvement in the Beef Plan may have helped to re-elect her, even as that organisation descends into chaos.
Has Matt Carthy's stance for flat basic payments and front-loaded coupled payments resonated with large numbers of farmers? And if Sinn Féin are part of the next government, how will the relationship of the establishment farm organisations, particularly the IFA, evolve?
As always with Irish elections, there are as many questions as answers. And this time, that's particularly true of the previously most stable and settled of voting groups, farmers.
Read more
Election 2020: ‘monopolies have to be broken up’ – Healy-Rae
Election 2020: how are agricultural politicians doing?
Election 2020: Fitzmaurice calls for ‘proper’ environmental scheme
As the country wakes up in the aftermath of the 2020 General Election, the landscape has been changed radically. I can say this with certainty even though over half the seats have yet to be filled.
This time last week Mary Lou McDonald was demanding inclusion in the leaders' debate with Leo Varadkar and Michael Martin. Now she leads the party that received the highest number of first preference votes.
The exit poll on Saturday night was stunning, showing Sinn Féin neck-and neck with the two parties who have dominated politics for a century, since they schismed from the original Sinn Féin following the Civil War. That exit poll also showed that farming didn't register as an issue influencing votes, while Brexit, such a preoccupation of Fine Gael and such a worry for farming, only registered as the issue for 1%. Climate change was cited by 6% of respondents.
As Storm Ciara buffeted the country, the winds of change blew through the count centres across Ireland.
As the results poured in, the extent of the change in voting became crystal clear. Sinn Féin topped the poll in 24 out of the 38 constituencies. with their huge surpluses transferring across left-leaning candidates and away from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. As Storm Ciara buffeted the country, the winds of change blew through the count centres across Ireland.
Impact
The surge was not just urban, but also rural. The impact was felt even in the Fine Gael stronghold of Cork South-West. Fine Gael have often held two seats in what they regard as "Michael Collins country". Now they have none, although Michael Collins the independent did top the poll. Fianna Fáil held their seat, with Christopher O'Sullivan replacing party colleague Mary Margaret O'Connor. Tillage farmer Tim Lombard led the Fine Gael charge but a strong showing by Holly Cairns, the Social Democratic candidate, coupled with Sinn Féin transfers saw her take the last seat. She is a farmer, but sounds more like a south Dublin solicitor, and as a seed saver and organic farmer, is unlikely to see eye-to-eye with the IFA on the Nitrates derogation.
Kevin O'Keeffe, son of farmer and former junior minister Ned, lost out in Cork East. Outgoing Junior MInister for Agriculture Andrew Doyle is in a dogfight in Wicklow, as are Michael D'Arcy in Wexford, and Agriculture Committee chair Pat Deering.
Farming vote
Did the farming vote also migrate from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil? They have dominated for decades. In 2015, the Irish Farmers Journal commissioned a Red C poll, which found that 48% supported Fine Gael, and 26% Fianna Fáil. Sinn Féin languished at only 6% of support, with Independents accounting for double that.
It was to rural independents that support first drifted. The Healy Rae's, Mattie McGrath, and Michael Lowry may all have been "gene pool" major party, having previously served in or sought office for one of the two big parties. Denis Naughton, Michael Fitzmaurice, and the aforementioned Collins all drew support and activists from the farming community. Verona Murphy in Wexford seems poised to join those ranks today.
The beef protests last year were strongly supported by Sinn Féin and independent politicians.
This election has seen a further, and more significant, shift. The warning signs were there for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. The beef protests last year were strongly supported by Sinn Féin and independent politicians. Anne Rabbitte's vocal and visible involvement in the Beef Plan may have helped to re-elect her, even as that organisation descends into chaos.
Has Matt Carthy's stance for flat basic payments and front-loaded coupled payments resonated with large numbers of farmers? And if Sinn Féin are part of the next government, how will the relationship of the establishment farm organisations, particularly the IFA, evolve?
As always with Irish elections, there are as many questions as answers. And this time, that's particularly true of the previously most stable and settled of voting groups, farmers.
Read more
Election 2020: ‘monopolies have to be broken up’ – Healy-Rae
Election 2020: how are agricultural politicians doing?
Election 2020: Fitzmaurice calls for ‘proper’ environmental scheme
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