The Food Harvest report has proposed a 50% increase in milk output for the Irish dairy industry using smart green technologies by 2020. There is general agreement within the industry that these targets can be achieved.
A 50% increase in milk production will require milk deliveries to increase from an average of 5.1billion litres over the 2007 to 2009 period to 7.66bn litres by 2020. Based on 2014 milk production figures, 19% of the 50% increase in milk production has already been achieved, even before milk quotas are abolished.
This expansion in Irish milk production has the potential to increase profitability on Irish dairy farms, create valuable new jobs within the national dairy industry and, combined with value add at processing level, will be worth in excess of €1bn in additional revenue to the Irish agri-economy in the next decade.
Taking a look firstly at the state of play of the Irish dairy industry in 1960, I track key developments in the dairy industry between that period and 2014, as well as the role of new and improved technologies in further increasing the competitiveness of the Irish dairy industry in the years ahead and, finally, outline the key challenges and opportunities in the new milk production environment.
Situation in 1960
In 1960 there were more than 100,000 milk producers supplying milk to 169 co-operative creameries. Average milk yield for the 800,000 creamery cows in 1960 was 1,594 litres per cow. At that time, Irish creameries processed 280million gallons of milk, mainly into butter, with the skim being returned to farmers for pig and calf rearing.
Average annual milk deliveries per dairy farm were 13,620 litres at a milk price of 2.25 c/l. Most of the creameries were making butter from milk of poor quality – less than 10% passed the three-hour Methylene Blue test, or had a total bacterial count (TBC) of less than a million. There was no bulk milk collection, and on-farm milk cooling was carried out using in-churn coolers or surface coolers with inadequate supply of water.
Farmers delivered their milk each day to the creamery in cans or churns. Water supplies were generally inadequate for efficient milk cooling as less than 25% of farms had a good water supply.
Housing and milking facilities were primitive by today’s standards. The majority of herds were housed in tie-up byres and were hand-milked – milking machines were tried on some farms, but because of problems with faulty equipment, many farmers reverted to the traditional method. Most dairy farmers did not have electricity. Milk production was based on late calving cows producing virtually all their milk from pasture.
A 1962 survey of dairy herds in Limerick showed that 71% of calving took place in the months of March and April. Concentrate feeding levels were very low due partly to the low milk price and high concentrate costs. Winter feed consisted mainly of hay. In 1958, less than 2% of Irish farmers made silage, which accounted for less than 2% of conserved grass feeds. Winter feed was generally very poor quality and cows were generally not housed until after Christmas.
1960 to 2014
Since 1960 the Irish dairy industry has undergone a gradual revolution. Over the past 54 years there have been significant changes on dairy farms. Many of the problems have been solved and barriers to progress and expansion overcome.
Table 1 (below) shows the trends in milk production in Ireland over the period. The 54 years can be divided into three periods; from 1960 to 1972 before accession to the European Economic Community (EEC); the second 12 years of rapid expansion as part of the EEC from 1972 to 1984; and the third period of EU milk quotas from 1984 to today.
The first 12 years were a period of low farm incomes due to low milk price (average 2 to 4c/l from 1960 to 1972) and low milk deliveries per farm (average 13,620 to 27,249 l/farm from 1960 to 1972). From an agricultural viewpoint, the most widely accepted economic argument in favour of Ireland joining the EEC in 1973 was that it would result in both higher prices being paid to farmers plus an increased volume of agricultural exports.
Between 1972 and 1984 the national herd increased by 2% per year; milk production by 7% per year and dairy farm numbers reduced by 20,000. Since the introduction of EU milk quotas, dairy farm numbers have reduced by greater than 40,000, cow numbers by approximately half a million, and there has also been a reduction in milk production.
Milk production per cow increased by approximately 4% per year between 1972 and 1984, and by 1% per year since 1984. The structure of dairying has also changed, with the number of dairy co-operatives reducing from 186 in 1961 to 18 in 2014. The production of cheese has increased from 58,000 tonnes in 1979 to 180,000 in 2013 while the quantity of butter produced has also increased from 131,000 tonnes to 152,000 tonnes over the same period.
From the very beginning it was decided that Ireland’s competitive advantage was in low-cost grass-based milk production. The first experiments carried out at Moorepark were stocking rate farmlet studies investigating the stock carrying capacity of Irish grassland.
National stocking rates at the time were less than 0.8 cows/ha (three acres/cow). The first experiments demonstrated that with some nitrogen for silage, it was possible to stock cows at two cows/ha (1.2 acres per cow). Over the next number of years other factors influencing output per hectare were investigated – soil type, nitrogen levels, genetic merit, number of paddocks and rotation length, grass species and variety.
By the mid-1970s a cow to an acre or better became a norm on dry soils on commercial dairy farms. This was facilitated greatly with the development of low-cost paddock infrastructure using electrified high-tensile wire and a network of farm roadways.
The importance of pre- and post-grazing height, grass quality, grass cover estimation and budgeting were developed in the late 1980s and 1990s, which led to the development of spring, mid-season and autumn grazing management guidelines.
The Spring Rotation Planner is used from turnout until pasture growth equates herd demand (late January until early April). The Pasture Wedge is used during the main grazing season (early-April until end of August) to control pasture supply taking into account herd demand, rotation length (i.e. regrowth period) and post-grazing residual. From the end of August an autumn grazing budget is used to maximise the amount of pasture utilised, while at the same time finishing the grazing season in late-autumn with the desired farm grass cover so as to set up the farm for the following spring.
In 1960 most Irish dairy cows were out-wintered until after Christmas, fed some hay before and after calving and very little concentrates. Expansion in milk production could not be based on hay because of low yields and because quality was weather dependent. By
necessity, grass silage making grew and by 1982, 54% of the national winter
forage consisted of conserved grass silage.
The predominant breed in Ireland in 1960 was the Shorthorn, which accounted for 77% of dairy cows. By the mid-1980s the predominant breed was the British Friesian graded up from the Shorthorn. By the early 2000s, the predominant breed had changed again to Holstein Friesian.
The introduction of Holstein Friesian genetics increased milk production per cow; however it resulted in a significant reduction in the reproductive performance of the national dairy herd.
The establishment of ICBF in 2000, with the launch of the Economic Breeding Index (EBI) in February 2001 significantly changed both national breeding objectives and breeding programmes. This index only looks at traits directly impacting on profitability – milk solids yield, fertility, calving, beef merit, maintenance, management traits and health.
Its main goals are to breed high-fertility, easily managed cows of moderate stature, which produce high-quality milk in a cost effective manner.
During the 1960s, herd fertility was a major problem. Seasonal grass-based systems of milk production depend on excellent fertility performance. A survey carried out early in the decade showed that the annual calving interval was almost 400 days, with a mean calving date in mid- to late March.
Additionally, culling for infertility was responsible for half the culls from the dairy herd. The reasons for infertility were commonly believed to be hormonal, mineral imbalance, uterine infection and poor nutrition. Results from experiments showed that the single most important factor affecting fertility was heat detection efficiency.
A programme was developed based on the use of tail pant and five observations per day; detection rate was increased to 90%. Nationally this resulted in an earlier calving date with a much more compact calving pattern.
Surveys carried out in the mid-1970s showed a calving rate to first service of over 60% and a culling rate for infertility of <10% from a predominately Friesian herd. However, the increased use of Holstein Friesian genetics from the mid-1980s resulted in calving rate to first AI being reduced from 55% in 1990 to 42% in 2000.
The introduction of the EBI in the early 2000s has played a significant role in reversing this deterioration in reproductive performance at farm level.
In the early years, brucellosis, mastitis, lameness and calf mortality were identified as the most serious health problems on dairy farms. A National Brucellosis Eradication programme was initiated in 1966 based on blood sampling and slaughter policy.
This eradication scheme threatened to wipe out the national dairy herd along with the disease. Today brucellosis is no longer a problem in dairy herds.
More recently, the establishment of Animal Health Ireland (AHI) in 2009 has played a significant role in the establishment of effective control programmes for non-regulated diseases of livestock e.g. CellCheck and BVD eradication programme.
In the late 1950s most cows were still milked by hand because of the poor standard of milking machines available. A survey in 1960 showed that 90% of milking machines had at least one
major fault. A large amount of farms that had purchased milking machines had reverted to hand milking because of a large drop in milk yield, too many mechanical problems or an increase in mastitis.
At that stage, there were 23 different brands of milking machine being sold in Ireland. In order to improve the standard of equipment, a six-point plan was set up which included:
performance tests on milking machines and their components (with results published)a link between mastitis and faulty milking machines was establisheda standard of instillation was publishedmaintenance standards on farms were agreedeffective methods of cleaning were developeddesign of milking parlours was publishedIn 1959, the 169 co-operatives were using 20 different testing methods for milk quality. A series of cleaning systems were devised which culminated in the development of the cold cleaning system which was simple, low cost and effective. A set of standards for cleaning detergents led to the establishment of the voluntary approval scheme in the late-1970s.
There was also a rapid change in milk assembly in terms of farm storage and milk transport. Research into refrigerated bulk tanks provided Irish bulk tank manufacturers with the required R and D to take a major share of the Irish market. Also, the development and evaluation of methods and instruments to measure both compositional and hygienic quality of milk also formed an important part of the research programme.
Figure 1 (above, top) shows the trends in Irish milk fat and protein content from 1980 to 2014. The data shows there was very little improvement in both fat and protein content between 1980 and 1997. At that stage, the fat and protein content of Irish milk was among the lowest in the EU. Since 1997, both milk fat and protein content have increased significantly, from 3.61% and 3.21% in 1997 to 3.99% and 3.43% respectively in 2014. In contrast, the average fat and protein content of EU milk is 3.99% fat and 3.34% protein today.
Figure 2 (above) shows the trends in both dairy cow numbers and milk production from 1980 to 2014. Cow numbers peaked in 1984 at 1.523m, dropped to their lowest level in 2006 at 1.055m; and have since steadily increased to 1.162m in 2013. At the introduction of EU milk quotas, milk production peaked in 1985 at 376,537 tonnes, remained relatively constant at 350,000 tonnes between 1988 and 2009 and has since increased to 418,985 tonnes in 2014. Based on 2014 milk production figures, 19% of the 50% increase in milk production set out in the Food Harvest report has already been achieved, even before milk quotas are abolished.
New technologies
The introduction of genomic selection in dairying in 2009 caused a paradigm shift in the national dairy cow breeding scheme design and accelerated the rate of genetic gain. Across-breed genomic predictions will be available in the coming years to facilitate more accurate identification of elite germplasm from other breeds.
The Irish custom genotype panel will continue to be updated to include informative genomic mutations to further increase the precision of genomic evaluations. The cost of procuring the genotype, per unit information, is also expected to reduce, thereby further augmenting adoption rate. Genomic predictions will also be available for a larger range of traits – animal health, milk quality, feed efficiency. The resulting larger population of genotyped animals, coupled with improved developed prediction algorithms, will materialise into greater reliability genomic predictions and thus greater genetic gain in the future.
Fertility
Irish seasonal grass-based systems of milk production depend on excellent fertility performance. After almost half a century of declining reproductive performance, global fertility trends in dairy cattle are now improving. In Ireland, this has arisen due to a combination of improved management (better use of interventions, improved herd health status) and improved genetics (selecting for calving interval and survival, use of genomic selection for earlier and more accurate identification of bulls with good merit for fertility traits).
It is likely the next ten years will see continued improvements in genetics for fertility traits, and this will bring with it cows that better maintain BCS and require fewer interventions for uterine health problems and anoestrous. On the other hand, the interventions that are used, particularly for anoestrous cows, will become more effective.
Sexed semen has been commercially available for over a decade. This technology provides a reliable gender bias of 90%, but fertility is generally reduced. Latest research results from New Zealand with fresh sexed semen indicated conception rates of 94% of conventional semen can be achieved. Hence, a
sexed semen product with conception rates equal to conventional semen should be a realistic target for the next decade.
Substantial variability between bulls has been noted in response to the sex-sorting procedure; some bulls have no reduction in fertility after sorting, whereas others have a marked reduction in fertility. If research to identify bulls suitable for sorting prove fruitful, it would obviously be hugely beneficial for sexed semen.
Pasture
The profitability of dairy farming in Ireland is closely linked to the level of grass utilised per hectare. Greater adoption of pasture measurement and budgeting will be essential in lifting grass utilisation from its current level of 7.3 tonnes DM/ha. The development of a national grassland database facilitated with greater use of web-based grassland management decision support tools such as PastureBase Ireland will be critical in the development of on-farm grass cultivar evaluations.
Future grass breeding objectives and breeding programmes will be significantly improved with the development of the Pasture Profit Index. Additionally, this will require a significant increase in soil fertility and sward renewal initiatives at farm level to obtain perennial ryegrass/white clover dominated pastures. Land drainage and improvement strategies will be critical in reducing income volatility and sustaining viable farm enterprises on heavy soils.
Much of the current marketing strategy involves promoting Ireland as a country with a clean, green environment, high compliance with relevant food safety legislation, milk of high-quality standard produced on farms with high animal health and welfare standards. There is a significant economic benefit to the eradication of infectious diseases such as BVD, IBR and Johnes. Other diseases such as mastitis and lameness relate to issues in terms of reduced milk production, increased use of antimicrobials and reduced animal welfare.
Improving the health status of Irish production systems will result in greater profitability at farm level as well as increasing the competitiveness of Irish food in international markets.
There will be an ongoing requirement to increase labour efficiency and make dairy farming a more attractive career for young people. Precision dairy farming technologies have the potential to develop more labour-efficient dairy production systems. Precision technologies also improve food safety through better animal identification and traceability, and animal wellbeing through improved health monitoring and individual care.
By expanding the number of animals managed by a family unit and increasing the level of precision in individual care, this kind of technology allows family farms to increase herd size and become more competitive, by improving labour efficiency and the productivity and health of the herd.
Specific technologies that can be included in the broad category of precision livestock management include: electronic (radio frequency) identification systems and associated management software, automatic sorting systems, robotic milking and calf-feeding, pedometers/activity monitors for heat detection, lameness detection and health monitoring, step/gait analysers to detect lameness, sensors to detect parturition contractions, electronic scales to assess body weight changes, inner-ear temperature sensors, in-line sensors to assess milk quality and composition and animal health and reproductive status.
Key challenges and opportunities
Over the coming decades, population growth, urbanisation and income growth, especially in developing countries, will result in a significant increase in demand for milk. World population has risen from less than three billion in 1950 to seven billion today; is projected to increase to 9.3bn by 2050. Medium-term prospects for milk and dairy products appear favourable. The next few decades will see unprecedented urban growth, particularly in Africa, Asia and China; as well as increasing food demand, this will significantly change patterns in food consumption by stimulating the use of perishable goods. In the future, economic growth in developing countries is expected to be significantly higher than in developed countries. As income grows in developing countries, so too does expenditure on livestock products. However with these opportunities come a number of challenges:
1. The imminent abolition of milk quotas on April 1 creates both exciting and challenging opportunities for the Irish dairy industry. For the first time in 30 years, Ireland can now plan to exploit our competitive advantage in milk production within a truly global marketplace fuelled by expansion on existing dairy farms and the entry of youthful new entrants to dairying.
However, as herd sizes increase on many dairy farms, this will place added pressure on the management capability of dairy farmers. While delivering long term financial gains, dairy farm expansion is initially precarious as additional capital investment is required and farm performance is frequently sub-optimal during the immediate expansion phase.
Dairy farmers will need a broader range of skills and an increased understanding of technical (grassland and stock management), people (staff supervision, communication and management) and business (cash flow, business planning and goal setting) skills to successfully develop their farming operations in this increasingly uncertain environment. The expansion in output will also exert challenges to both the processing and marketing sectors to process the increased milk supply and market increased volumes of dairy products.
2. In recent years, milk prices have become much more turbulent because of the tight world supply/demand conditions on global markets. During the last decade, and against a backdrop of a modestly increasing annual milk price trend, the variation in annual milk price has increased fourfold (from +/- 2 to +/- 8 cents/litre). While the abolition of quotas will facilitate opportunities for expansion on many dairy farms; increased investment requirements at farm level within a volatile milk price environment pose challenges. Consequently, strict cost control will be even more important at farm level in the future and necessitates the development of more resilient farming systems.
Key components of the dairy systems post milk quotas will be the use of high EBI genetics and the realisation of increased grass production and utilisation per hectare. These businesses need to be technically and financially efficient, generate surplus cash, consistently achieve financial expectations and be simple to operate. In Ireland, resilient dairy farm systems must have a low cost base to insulate the business from price shocks and allow family-based farms to generate sufficient funds in higher milk price times to meet family commitments and finance expansion.
Additionally, a resilient dairy farming system must have sufficient tactical flexibility to overcome unanticipated events that can lower short term profitability.
3. Systems of milk production in Ireland are competitive because they are grass-based. Recent studies have shown that cash costs as a per cent of output are relatively low in Ireland (68%) compared to Holland (75%) and Denmark (88%). However the level of specialisation in milk production in Ireland is low by international standards because the Irish dairy industry was at a different level when milk quotas were introduced in 1984, compounded by the milk quota policy implemented since their introduction.
This low level of specialisation in dairy production means there is significant capacity to increase cow numbers on existing dairy farms. National Farm Survey data show that on average just 56% of livestock on dairy farms are dairy cows and when replacement heifers are included this increases to 67% of all animals. At present only 25% of grassland in Ireland is being farmed by specialised dairy farmers. Consequently, there is significant potential for expansion.
4. Irish grass-based systems of milk production are also more sustainable than most other milk production systems throughout the world. A recent study has shown that Irish milk production is the most efficient in terms of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. Additionally, Irish grass-based systems are superior in terms of animal health and welfare, milk composition, biodiversity and water quality.
We must ensure our post-quota systems of production continue to set the highest international standards for food safety and quality, animal welfare and environmental sustainability. Moreover, Irish dairy farmers must be prepared to adjust production systems and practices in the future to meet the changing requirements of discerning international customers.
5. The next generation of dairy farmers will require additional education and training and experiential learning in advance of taking control of these large dairy units. Already, there is an increasing demand for technically skilled farm managers to meet the skills gap on expanding dairy farms.
To meet this growing demand for suitably skilled and experienced managers, Teagasc, in conjunction with UCD and industry stakeholders, has developed the Professional Diploma in Dairy Farm Management, and it is hoped that more farm families will avail of this programme in the coming years to provide dairy farmers and managers with the necessary skills and hands-on experience needed to provide the best possible start in their farming careers.
New business structures, such as share farming, will also be required to encourage land conversion into milk production, creating a progressive pathway that will attract more and more new people to a career in dairy farming.
The Food Harvest report has proposed a 50% increase in milk output for the Irish dairy industry using smart green technologies by 2020. There is general agreement within the industry that these targets can be achieved.
A 50% increase in milk production will require milk deliveries to increase from an average of 5.1billion litres over the 2007 to 2009 period to 7.66bn litres by 2020. Based on 2014 milk production figures, 19% of the 50% increase in milk production has already been achieved, even before milk quotas are abolished.
This expansion in Irish milk production has the potential to increase profitability on Irish dairy farms, create valuable new jobs within the national dairy industry and, combined with value add at processing level, will be worth in excess of €1bn in additional revenue to the Irish agri-economy in the next decade.
Taking a look firstly at the state of play of the Irish dairy industry in 1960, I track key developments in the dairy industry between that period and 2014, as well as the role of new and improved technologies in further increasing the competitiveness of the Irish dairy industry in the years ahead and, finally, outline the key challenges and opportunities in the new milk production environment.
Situation in 1960
In 1960 there were more than 100,000 milk producers supplying milk to 169 co-operative creameries. Average milk yield for the 800,000 creamery cows in 1960 was 1,594 litres per cow. At that time, Irish creameries processed 280million gallons of milk, mainly into butter, with the skim being returned to farmers for pig and calf rearing.
Average annual milk deliveries per dairy farm were 13,620 litres at a milk price of 2.25 c/l. Most of the creameries were making butter from milk of poor quality – less than 10% passed the three-hour Methylene Blue test, or had a total bacterial count (TBC) of less than a million. There was no bulk milk collection, and on-farm milk cooling was carried out using in-churn coolers or surface coolers with inadequate supply of water.
Farmers delivered their milk each day to the creamery in cans or churns. Water supplies were generally inadequate for efficient milk cooling as less than 25% of farms had a good water supply.
Housing and milking facilities were primitive by today’s standards. The majority of herds were housed in tie-up byres and were hand-milked – milking machines were tried on some farms, but because of problems with faulty equipment, many farmers reverted to the traditional method. Most dairy farmers did not have electricity. Milk production was based on late calving cows producing virtually all their milk from pasture.
A 1962 survey of dairy herds in Limerick showed that 71% of calving took place in the months of March and April. Concentrate feeding levels were very low due partly to the low milk price and high concentrate costs. Winter feed consisted mainly of hay. In 1958, less than 2% of Irish farmers made silage, which accounted for less than 2% of conserved grass feeds. Winter feed was generally very poor quality and cows were generally not housed until after Christmas.
1960 to 2014
Since 1960 the Irish dairy industry has undergone a gradual revolution. Over the past 54 years there have been significant changes on dairy farms. Many of the problems have been solved and barriers to progress and expansion overcome.
Table 1 (below) shows the trends in milk production in Ireland over the period. The 54 years can be divided into three periods; from 1960 to 1972 before accession to the European Economic Community (EEC); the second 12 years of rapid expansion as part of the EEC from 1972 to 1984; and the third period of EU milk quotas from 1984 to today.
The first 12 years were a period of low farm incomes due to low milk price (average 2 to 4c/l from 1960 to 1972) and low milk deliveries per farm (average 13,620 to 27,249 l/farm from 1960 to 1972). From an agricultural viewpoint, the most widely accepted economic argument in favour of Ireland joining the EEC in 1973 was that it would result in both higher prices being paid to farmers plus an increased volume of agricultural exports.
Between 1972 and 1984 the national herd increased by 2% per year; milk production by 7% per year and dairy farm numbers reduced by 20,000. Since the introduction of EU milk quotas, dairy farm numbers have reduced by greater than 40,000, cow numbers by approximately half a million, and there has also been a reduction in milk production.
Milk production per cow increased by approximately 4% per year between 1972 and 1984, and by 1% per year since 1984. The structure of dairying has also changed, with the number of dairy co-operatives reducing from 186 in 1961 to 18 in 2014. The production of cheese has increased from 58,000 tonnes in 1979 to 180,000 in 2013 while the quantity of butter produced has also increased from 131,000 tonnes to 152,000 tonnes over the same period.
From the very beginning it was decided that Ireland’s competitive advantage was in low-cost grass-based milk production. The first experiments carried out at Moorepark were stocking rate farmlet studies investigating the stock carrying capacity of Irish grassland.
National stocking rates at the time were less than 0.8 cows/ha (three acres/cow). The first experiments demonstrated that with some nitrogen for silage, it was possible to stock cows at two cows/ha (1.2 acres per cow). Over the next number of years other factors influencing output per hectare were investigated – soil type, nitrogen levels, genetic merit, number of paddocks and rotation length, grass species and variety.
By the mid-1970s a cow to an acre or better became a norm on dry soils on commercial dairy farms. This was facilitated greatly with the development of low-cost paddock infrastructure using electrified high-tensile wire and a network of farm roadways.
The importance of pre- and post-grazing height, grass quality, grass cover estimation and budgeting were developed in the late 1980s and 1990s, which led to the development of spring, mid-season and autumn grazing management guidelines.
The Spring Rotation Planner is used from turnout until pasture growth equates herd demand (late January until early April). The Pasture Wedge is used during the main grazing season (early-April until end of August) to control pasture supply taking into account herd demand, rotation length (i.e. regrowth period) and post-grazing residual. From the end of August an autumn grazing budget is used to maximise the amount of pasture utilised, while at the same time finishing the grazing season in late-autumn with the desired farm grass cover so as to set up the farm for the following spring.
In 1960 most Irish dairy cows were out-wintered until after Christmas, fed some hay before and after calving and very little concentrates. Expansion in milk production could not be based on hay because of low yields and because quality was weather dependent. By
necessity, grass silage making grew and by 1982, 54% of the national winter
forage consisted of conserved grass silage.
The predominant breed in Ireland in 1960 was the Shorthorn, which accounted for 77% of dairy cows. By the mid-1980s the predominant breed was the British Friesian graded up from the Shorthorn. By the early 2000s, the predominant breed had changed again to Holstein Friesian.
The introduction of Holstein Friesian genetics increased milk production per cow; however it resulted in a significant reduction in the reproductive performance of the national dairy herd.
The establishment of ICBF in 2000, with the launch of the Economic Breeding Index (EBI) in February 2001 significantly changed both national breeding objectives and breeding programmes. This index only looks at traits directly impacting on profitability – milk solids yield, fertility, calving, beef merit, maintenance, management traits and health.
Its main goals are to breed high-fertility, easily managed cows of moderate stature, which produce high-quality milk in a cost effective manner.
During the 1960s, herd fertility was a major problem. Seasonal grass-based systems of milk production depend on excellent fertility performance. A survey carried out early in the decade showed that the annual calving interval was almost 400 days, with a mean calving date in mid- to late March.
Additionally, culling for infertility was responsible for half the culls from the dairy herd. The reasons for infertility were commonly believed to be hormonal, mineral imbalance, uterine infection and poor nutrition. Results from experiments showed that the single most important factor affecting fertility was heat detection efficiency.
A programme was developed based on the use of tail pant and five observations per day; detection rate was increased to 90%. Nationally this resulted in an earlier calving date with a much more compact calving pattern.
Surveys carried out in the mid-1970s showed a calving rate to first service of over 60% and a culling rate for infertility of <10% from a predominately Friesian herd. However, the increased use of Holstein Friesian genetics from the mid-1980s resulted in calving rate to first AI being reduced from 55% in 1990 to 42% in 2000.
The introduction of the EBI in the early 2000s has played a significant role in reversing this deterioration in reproductive performance at farm level.
In the early years, brucellosis, mastitis, lameness and calf mortality were identified as the most serious health problems on dairy farms. A National Brucellosis Eradication programme was initiated in 1966 based on blood sampling and slaughter policy.
This eradication scheme threatened to wipe out the national dairy herd along with the disease. Today brucellosis is no longer a problem in dairy herds.
More recently, the establishment of Animal Health Ireland (AHI) in 2009 has played a significant role in the establishment of effective control programmes for non-regulated diseases of livestock e.g. CellCheck and BVD eradication programme.
In the late 1950s most cows were still milked by hand because of the poor standard of milking machines available. A survey in 1960 showed that 90% of milking machines had at least one
major fault. A large amount of farms that had purchased milking machines had reverted to hand milking because of a large drop in milk yield, too many mechanical problems or an increase in mastitis.
At that stage, there were 23 different brands of milking machine being sold in Ireland. In order to improve the standard of equipment, a six-point plan was set up which included:
performance tests on milking machines and their components (with results published)a link between mastitis and faulty milking machines was establisheda standard of instillation was publishedmaintenance standards on farms were agreedeffective methods of cleaning were developeddesign of milking parlours was publishedIn 1959, the 169 co-operatives were using 20 different testing methods for milk quality. A series of cleaning systems were devised which culminated in the development of the cold cleaning system which was simple, low cost and effective. A set of standards for cleaning detergents led to the establishment of the voluntary approval scheme in the late-1970s.
There was also a rapid change in milk assembly in terms of farm storage and milk transport. Research into refrigerated bulk tanks provided Irish bulk tank manufacturers with the required R and D to take a major share of the Irish market. Also, the development and evaluation of methods and instruments to measure both compositional and hygienic quality of milk also formed an important part of the research programme.
Figure 1 (above, top) shows the trends in Irish milk fat and protein content from 1980 to 2014. The data shows there was very little improvement in both fat and protein content between 1980 and 1997. At that stage, the fat and protein content of Irish milk was among the lowest in the EU. Since 1997, both milk fat and protein content have increased significantly, from 3.61% and 3.21% in 1997 to 3.99% and 3.43% respectively in 2014. In contrast, the average fat and protein content of EU milk is 3.99% fat and 3.34% protein today.
Figure 2 (above) shows the trends in both dairy cow numbers and milk production from 1980 to 2014. Cow numbers peaked in 1984 at 1.523m, dropped to their lowest level in 2006 at 1.055m; and have since steadily increased to 1.162m in 2013. At the introduction of EU milk quotas, milk production peaked in 1985 at 376,537 tonnes, remained relatively constant at 350,000 tonnes between 1988 and 2009 and has since increased to 418,985 tonnes in 2014. Based on 2014 milk production figures, 19% of the 50% increase in milk production set out in the Food Harvest report has already been achieved, even before milk quotas are abolished.
New technologies
The introduction of genomic selection in dairying in 2009 caused a paradigm shift in the national dairy cow breeding scheme design and accelerated the rate of genetic gain. Across-breed genomic predictions will be available in the coming years to facilitate more accurate identification of elite germplasm from other breeds.
The Irish custom genotype panel will continue to be updated to include informative genomic mutations to further increase the precision of genomic evaluations. The cost of procuring the genotype, per unit information, is also expected to reduce, thereby further augmenting adoption rate. Genomic predictions will also be available for a larger range of traits – animal health, milk quality, feed efficiency. The resulting larger population of genotyped animals, coupled with improved developed prediction algorithms, will materialise into greater reliability genomic predictions and thus greater genetic gain in the future.
Fertility
Irish seasonal grass-based systems of milk production depend on excellent fertility performance. After almost half a century of declining reproductive performance, global fertility trends in dairy cattle are now improving. In Ireland, this has arisen due to a combination of improved management (better use of interventions, improved herd health status) and improved genetics (selecting for calving interval and survival, use of genomic selection for earlier and more accurate identification of bulls with good merit for fertility traits).
It is likely the next ten years will see continued improvements in genetics for fertility traits, and this will bring with it cows that better maintain BCS and require fewer interventions for uterine health problems and anoestrous. On the other hand, the interventions that are used, particularly for anoestrous cows, will become more effective.
Sexed semen has been commercially available for over a decade. This technology provides a reliable gender bias of 90%, but fertility is generally reduced. Latest research results from New Zealand with fresh sexed semen indicated conception rates of 94% of conventional semen can be achieved. Hence, a
sexed semen product with conception rates equal to conventional semen should be a realistic target for the next decade.
Substantial variability between bulls has been noted in response to the sex-sorting procedure; some bulls have no reduction in fertility after sorting, whereas others have a marked reduction in fertility. If research to identify bulls suitable for sorting prove fruitful, it would obviously be hugely beneficial for sexed semen.
Pasture
The profitability of dairy farming in Ireland is closely linked to the level of grass utilised per hectare. Greater adoption of pasture measurement and budgeting will be essential in lifting grass utilisation from its current level of 7.3 tonnes DM/ha. The development of a national grassland database facilitated with greater use of web-based grassland management decision support tools such as PastureBase Ireland will be critical in the development of on-farm grass cultivar evaluations.
Future grass breeding objectives and breeding programmes will be significantly improved with the development of the Pasture Profit Index. Additionally, this will require a significant increase in soil fertility and sward renewal initiatives at farm level to obtain perennial ryegrass/white clover dominated pastures. Land drainage and improvement strategies will be critical in reducing income volatility and sustaining viable farm enterprises on heavy soils.
Much of the current marketing strategy involves promoting Ireland as a country with a clean, green environment, high compliance with relevant food safety legislation, milk of high-quality standard produced on farms with high animal health and welfare standards. There is a significant economic benefit to the eradication of infectious diseases such as BVD, IBR and Johnes. Other diseases such as mastitis and lameness relate to issues in terms of reduced milk production, increased use of antimicrobials and reduced animal welfare.
Improving the health status of Irish production systems will result in greater profitability at farm level as well as increasing the competitiveness of Irish food in international markets.
There will be an ongoing requirement to increase labour efficiency and make dairy farming a more attractive career for young people. Precision dairy farming technologies have the potential to develop more labour-efficient dairy production systems. Precision technologies also improve food safety through better animal identification and traceability, and animal wellbeing through improved health monitoring and individual care.
By expanding the number of animals managed by a family unit and increasing the level of precision in individual care, this kind of technology allows family farms to increase herd size and become more competitive, by improving labour efficiency and the productivity and health of the herd.
Specific technologies that can be included in the broad category of precision livestock management include: electronic (radio frequency) identification systems and associated management software, automatic sorting systems, robotic milking and calf-feeding, pedometers/activity monitors for heat detection, lameness detection and health monitoring, step/gait analysers to detect lameness, sensors to detect parturition contractions, electronic scales to assess body weight changes, inner-ear temperature sensors, in-line sensors to assess milk quality and composition and animal health and reproductive status.
Key challenges and opportunities
Over the coming decades, population growth, urbanisation and income growth, especially in developing countries, will result in a significant increase in demand for milk. World population has risen from less than three billion in 1950 to seven billion today; is projected to increase to 9.3bn by 2050. Medium-term prospects for milk and dairy products appear favourable. The next few decades will see unprecedented urban growth, particularly in Africa, Asia and China; as well as increasing food demand, this will significantly change patterns in food consumption by stimulating the use of perishable goods. In the future, economic growth in developing countries is expected to be significantly higher than in developed countries. As income grows in developing countries, so too does expenditure on livestock products. However with these opportunities come a number of challenges:
1. The imminent abolition of milk quotas on April 1 creates both exciting and challenging opportunities for the Irish dairy industry. For the first time in 30 years, Ireland can now plan to exploit our competitive advantage in milk production within a truly global marketplace fuelled by expansion on existing dairy farms and the entry of youthful new entrants to dairying.
However, as herd sizes increase on many dairy farms, this will place added pressure on the management capability of dairy farmers. While delivering long term financial gains, dairy farm expansion is initially precarious as additional capital investment is required and farm performance is frequently sub-optimal during the immediate expansion phase.
Dairy farmers will need a broader range of skills and an increased understanding of technical (grassland and stock management), people (staff supervision, communication and management) and business (cash flow, business planning and goal setting) skills to successfully develop their farming operations in this increasingly uncertain environment. The expansion in output will also exert challenges to both the processing and marketing sectors to process the increased milk supply and market increased volumes of dairy products.
2. In recent years, milk prices have become much more turbulent because of the tight world supply/demand conditions on global markets. During the last decade, and against a backdrop of a modestly increasing annual milk price trend, the variation in annual milk price has increased fourfold (from +/- 2 to +/- 8 cents/litre). While the abolition of quotas will facilitate opportunities for expansion on many dairy farms; increased investment requirements at farm level within a volatile milk price environment pose challenges. Consequently, strict cost control will be even more important at farm level in the future and necessitates the development of more resilient farming systems.
Key components of the dairy systems post milk quotas will be the use of high EBI genetics and the realisation of increased grass production and utilisation per hectare. These businesses need to be technically and financially efficient, generate surplus cash, consistently achieve financial expectations and be simple to operate. In Ireland, resilient dairy farm systems must have a low cost base to insulate the business from price shocks and allow family-based farms to generate sufficient funds in higher milk price times to meet family commitments and finance expansion.
Additionally, a resilient dairy farming system must have sufficient tactical flexibility to overcome unanticipated events that can lower short term profitability.
3. Systems of milk production in Ireland are competitive because they are grass-based. Recent studies have shown that cash costs as a per cent of output are relatively low in Ireland (68%) compared to Holland (75%) and Denmark (88%). However the level of specialisation in milk production in Ireland is low by international standards because the Irish dairy industry was at a different level when milk quotas were introduced in 1984, compounded by the milk quota policy implemented since their introduction.
This low level of specialisation in dairy production means there is significant capacity to increase cow numbers on existing dairy farms. National Farm Survey data show that on average just 56% of livestock on dairy farms are dairy cows and when replacement heifers are included this increases to 67% of all animals. At present only 25% of grassland in Ireland is being farmed by specialised dairy farmers. Consequently, there is significant potential for expansion.
4. Irish grass-based systems of milk production are also more sustainable than most other milk production systems throughout the world. A recent study has shown that Irish milk production is the most efficient in terms of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. Additionally, Irish grass-based systems are superior in terms of animal health and welfare, milk composition, biodiversity and water quality.
We must ensure our post-quota systems of production continue to set the highest international standards for food safety and quality, animal welfare and environmental sustainability. Moreover, Irish dairy farmers must be prepared to adjust production systems and practices in the future to meet the changing requirements of discerning international customers.
5. The next generation of dairy farmers will require additional education and training and experiential learning in advance of taking control of these large dairy units. Already, there is an increasing demand for technically skilled farm managers to meet the skills gap on expanding dairy farms.
To meet this growing demand for suitably skilled and experienced managers, Teagasc, in conjunction with UCD and industry stakeholders, has developed the Professional Diploma in Dairy Farm Management, and it is hoped that more farm families will avail of this programme in the coming years to provide dairy farmers and managers with the necessary skills and hands-on experience needed to provide the best possible start in their farming careers.
New business structures, such as share farming, will also be required to encourage land conversion into milk production, creating a progressive pathway that will attract more and more new people to a career in dairy farming.
SHARING OPTIONS