Grain markets: December WASDE report fails to inspire
Decembers USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates failed to provide a boost this week as most of the big projections were left unchanged from Novembers report.
Global wheat production is expected to be back this season.
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This week the USDA released its December issue of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which largely failed to provide a boost to market sentiment.
The consensus is somewhat unchanged from November’s report and sees global wheat output down, but offset by increases in global maize output. Global markets were sluggish to react.
Both Australia and Argentina have substantially reduced their production estimates of wheat this season due to ongoing drought to 16.1m tonnes and 19 Mt respectively. In contrast, however, both EU and Russian production is revised upwards by 0.5Mt.
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Despite poor yields in Canada, global maize production is forecast to increase. Global maize ending stocks have been revised up by 4.6Mt, to 300.6Mt, largely due to an increase in China’s production and a reduction in exports. This has taken world production up to 1108.6Mt, from 1102.2Mt.
In Europe the poor weather in France and the UK has continued to hinder fieldwork and growers there are still lagging behind in planting winter crops. France this week announced a reduction of 5% in its winter wheat area. The area planted to rapeseed is estimated to be down almost 27% on the five-year average.
Native prices remain steady, with spot wheat and barley trading €186 and €175/t respectively. November 2020 price indications suggest €185/t for wheat and €175/t for barley.
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This week the USDA released its December issue of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which largely failed to provide a boost to market sentiment.
The consensus is somewhat unchanged from November’s report and sees global wheat output down, but offset by increases in global maize output. Global markets were sluggish to react.
Both Australia and Argentina have substantially reduced their production estimates of wheat this season due to ongoing drought to 16.1m tonnes and 19 Mt respectively. In contrast, however, both EU and Russian production is revised upwards by 0.5Mt.
Despite poor yields in Canada, global maize production is forecast to increase. Global maize ending stocks have been revised up by 4.6Mt, to 300.6Mt, largely due to an increase in China’s production and a reduction in exports. This has taken world production up to 1108.6Mt, from 1102.2Mt.
In Europe the poor weather in France and the UK has continued to hinder fieldwork and growers there are still lagging behind in planting winter crops. France this week announced a reduction of 5% in its winter wheat area. The area planted to rapeseed is estimated to be down almost 27% on the five-year average.
Native prices remain steady, with spot wheat and barley trading €186 and €175/t respectively. November 2020 price indications suggest €185/t for wheat and €175/t for barley.
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