International grain markets have sent out varying signals in the past week and they differ somewhat either side of the Atlantic.

There was a general recovery following the fund sell-off two weeks ago, but nearby and new-crop wheat have weakened in the US and both are slightly lower on MATIF also. Nearby maize in Chicago is only slightly back, but new-crop appears to be on a downward trend for the moment.

Rising prices need strong news to continue that rise beyond a certain price point and that seems to be missing again. While prices have changed very little in the past week, sentiment is lower when there is no news to drive it and prices are lower than they were.

The strongest position in the market remains US maize. Last week was a huge week for Chinese buying and this has helped to keep nearby prices strong. The AHDB reports that China purchased 5.85mt of US maize last week, with 2.1mt purchased on a single day. This, it reported, was the single biggest daily sale of US maize since the USSR purchased 3.7mt in a day back in 1991.

Maize a weather market

In contrast to maize, sentiment on wheat had little to support it, so there has been greater volatility in that market in the past week. Indeed, some suggest that maize prices might have pushed on further were it not for the uncertainty around wheat.

Maize supply fears were eased by recent rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina. However, the expectation is that rainfall levels there will fall back below normal after this week, so the weather market remains.

The general status of Argentina’s maize crops seems to be much lower than previous years and production surprises seem unlikely.

However, the situation in Brazil is more mixed, with that recent rainfall improving crop prospects in some regions. But in other regions where crops were more advanced, the damage is said to be “irrecoverable”.

Native markets

While futures are somewhat weaker, physical prices here remain broadly similar. The lack of active trading makes a clear picture on prices difficult to uncertain.

But there certainly has been no weakening in physical prices, so it is likely that they remain either side of €240/t for wheat and €210/t for barley in nearby positions.

But there is still that big gap in prices between nearby and new-crop that keeps markets uncertain. November wheat is currently put either side of €200/t, depending on the day, while barley remains in the €185 to €190/t range.