Futures prices eased back a bit across all markets in the past week, thus continuing a trend that began last week.

Nothing much has changed, but neither was there anything to drive markets.

Some international trading prices were back slightly, but most physical markets have held, especially for nearby positions.

The change in sentiment has weakened new-crop prices somewhat though.

EU exports have continued very strong and it is likely that stock levels will be low by harvest

The fact that sellers are slow to sell is helping to hold prices. But there seems to be increased interest in the market from those with grain to sell as demand remains good.

EU exports have continued very strong and it is likely that stock levels will be low by harvest. However, there is concern that some big buyers have reduced their purchase quantities, leaving a level of nervousness that current price levels could be impacting on usage and demand.

EU crop condition

The recent European Commission crop condition bulletin indicates that crops are largely seen to be in a positive state as new season growth commences. Winter crop condition is much better than last year and estimated to be better than longer-term average trends. But it is still far too early to place much emphasis on the ability of such forecasts to accurately predict yield.

EU wheat has remained quite competitive and exports have been strong.

This will inevitably result in reduced ending stocks, which are now expected to be at their lowest level for a number of years. But alongside this is a Coceral estimate of 126.6mt for the EU27 harvest, up 7.9mt on last year.

US prices weakened

While nearby positions for maize in the US have been somewhat flat for some time, new-crop CBOT maize for December weakened in recent days following an almost continuous price climb since late January. New-crop wheat has continued its decline since the highs of 24 February, but prices are still relatively high.

The fall was also influenced by the lack of action by traders who are awaiting news on US spring planting trends

Weather is a factor for both crops, with recent snow likely to add to water availability for the coming growing season and rain is forecast for other areas that have been quite dry.

The fall was also influenced by the lack of action by traders who are awaiting news on US spring planting trends and also purchase indications from China.

Native prices

Despite all these swings and roundabouts, nearby native old-crop prices remain similar to last week. Wheat remains around the €250/t mark and barley sits in the €215 to €220/t bracket. New-crop wheat is back slightly though at €205 to €206/t, but barley remains around €195/t.