International grain markets continue on a weak tone, with US maize sitting either side of $3.30 per bushel (€120/t) for December futures and wheat back down around $5.10/bu (€173.54/t) this week, back from €194/t at the start of April. US maize has been flat for some time now and the market is asking if the price can actually fall further at this point.

Maize remains under price pressure too

Wheat markets continue to respond to forecasts of heavy global supplies from production and stocks. While European supply will be hit by area and yield, the global outlook is exerting the greater pressure on sentiment.

Maize remains under price pressure too for largely the same reasons – supply relative to anticipated demand. Fears for South American crops have now dissipated.

Elsewhere, the forecasts predict heavy supplies from recently-sown crops and there are no major concerns reported to dampen this expectation.

Barley concerns grow

Things are no better on the barley front and they were not improved by the confirmation that the Chinese are to impose an 80% tariff on Australian barley imports.

This is the culmination of a trade dispute between the two countries following Australia’s support for an international investigation into the source of the coronavirus.

This move could leave even more of the world’s barley looking for a home on international markets on top of projections of large domestic, global and European crops.

One of the few glimmers of hope comes from the dry concerns being experienced in Europe

This is on top of demand concerns for malting barley arising from the closures of bars, restaurants, etc, due the pandemic. In this regard, it was good to get confirmation that Dairygold, as well as Glanbia, is to honour all its malting barley intake contracts to ensure Irish farmers have a market for their barley.

One of the few glimmers of hope comes from the dry concerns being experienced in Europe.

There may also be new export opportunities to places like China

Last year, our near neighbours in Britain went on an export drive on surplus ahead of the impending Brexit deadline. This year, they are likely to have even more barley – an estimated 8.3mt according to current AHDB estimates – and much of this is likely to be in search of a home as yet another Brexit deadline looms. But there may also be new export opportunities to places like China.

Native prices

Native wheat prices remain broadly similar to last week, with around €202/t for nearby and €192/t for November. Barley might be slightly stronger though, with spot now around €170/t and November pushing closer to €168/t.

Earlier this week, Glanbia offered €190/t for dry wheat and €165/t for barley for November, and €156/t for green wheat and €133/t for green barley.