Grain markets have been largely flat over the past week, but volatility remains. MATIF December wheat futures closed last Friday at €326.75/t compared with €327.25 on the previous Wednesday. It closed at €325.50/t on Monday of this week and €326/t on Tuesday.

The market continues to be both nervous and volatile. There is little doubt but that the Ukrainian export corridor continues to pressure price sentiment and now the protests in China over COVID-19 lockdown issues have added to demand fears.

Markets picked up somewhat last Friday after lower EU maize production estimates were released, thus tightening overall supply pressure. There was also some support provided by that fact that month-on-month exports out of Ukraine were lower in November.

The new EU estimate for its 2022 maize crop is 53.3Mt, down 1.6Mt from the previous month. This also means higher imports – up 1Mt to 23Mt for the 2022/23 season.

Corridor concerns

Ukraine’s infrastructure minister said recently that Russia is trying to limit ship inspections at ports.

The recent AHDB report indicated that Black Sea ports are only operating at 50% capacity because of large queues (up to 77 ships) awaiting inspection in Turkey.

The AHDB report also said that Ukraine exported almost 17.2Mt of grain so far this season. This is down by almost one third from the same period last year, but there was still an estimated 4.2Mt exported from Ukrainian ports in October alone.

However, the expectation is that this will not reach 3Mt for November, so this is something that will be watched closely in the weeks ahead.

COVID and China

Many will have read or heard about the protests in China around many issues relating to COVID-19 lockdowns. Now lockdowns, protests and recessionary fears are causing concerns for global grain demand.

Demand from China will be watched closely in the weeks ahead as any demand reductions there could offset limitation in Ukrainian exports.

Native prices

Markets are slow currently, with sellers now wanting to move grain, but buyers are largely uninterested as the market continues to weaken.

Price reporting is difficult, but there is a definite weakness in sentiment. Nearby wheat seems to be either side of €325/t, with nearby barley either side of €310/t.

Prices for 2023 now have wheat around €290 to €295/t, with barley at €275 to €280/t.

Rape prices continue to weaken with crude oil. November 2023 MATIF rape closed at €587.25/t on Tuesday last.