Despite wheat supplies looking tighter next season ahead, total grain supplies still look heavy, which is bearish for wheat.

Many northern hemisphere wheat crops are in their key yield-forming stages and until crops are harvested, there still remains a degree of risk.

Expectations for global maize supplies remain high. But this is uncertain until the crops, especially in the US, are through the key yield-forming stages.

A large proportion of the US maize crop is now planted, thanks to dry weather in the US Midwest.

However, if the dryness continues, it could pose a risk to crop development, but rain is forecast.

Russian wheat export prices declined again last week, due to forecasts of a large Russian crop this coming harvest, adding further pressure to markets.

However, sentiment could shift if there is a threat to these yields or if the Black Sea initiative is not renewed.

Europe

In Europe, crop conditions in major grain-exporting countries are generally favourable, according to the European Commission.

However, the impact of drought in Spain, Portugal, and parts of north Africa will likely result in higher import needs for the 2023/24 season.

Last week, Matif (French) wheat for December recorded a further decrease of €2/t, reaching €226.25/t.

In the UK, the July 2023 contract UK feed wheat futures finished at £170/t. This represents a significant decline of £191/t over the past year, considering they reached their highest point at £361/t on 16 May 2022.

French oilseed rape for August dropped to €385/t this week, a drop of over €10/t compared with the previous week, while the November price decreased by almost €12/t to €394/t.

Global barley prices continue to be influenced by trends in the broader grain market.

The bearish sentiment remains due to forecasts of increased feed grain supplies for the upcoming season.

Closer to home

The current market pressure is reflected closer to home, as Tirlán issued its latest forward price offers.

Growers can secure €200/t for green feed wheat and €190/t for green feed barley delivered in September.

Spot price for wheat and barley also continued their downward trajectory and now stand at around €235/t to €240/t and €225/t to €230/t respectively.

However, remember native volumes which are traded this time of year are low.

As harvest time approaches, there is a growing sense of unease at the trajectory of grain prices among growers.