Grain markets have been relatively calm over the past week with lower overall volatility. The main change on the MATIF futures hinged around the weakening of nearby positions and the strengthening of further out positions, including new crop.

At the height of the volatility, March wheat had a €90/t differential with December prices. This dropped back to around €50/t at the end of last week, but moved to over €60/t on Monday when the May contract increased by almost €10/t.

With March contracts now closed, the May wheat contract closed at €378.75 on Monday, while the December contract closed at €317.50/t.

The latter has been increasing over the past week, but with much lower levels of daily price movement. It is worth noting that all contract positions from now out to harvest ’24 show continuously falling contract values.

War still the driver

Markets continue to react to matters relating to the war, with Ukraine’s ban on fertiliser exports and the move to licencing its railroad wheat and maize exports adding support.

There is also a likelihood that maize, sunflower and oilseed rape areas are likely to decrease, if planting can progress, with buckwheat, oats and millet likely to take up some of that slack.

The overall supply situation was affected by the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which indicated that less grain had been exported from Ukraine and Russia than had been thought previously. This further tightened global availability of key agricultural commodities.

This has helped increase EU wheat exports, especially from France, to substitute for the tonnages that did not come out of Ukraine and Russia.

Meanwhile, Safrinha maize planting is progressing well in Brazil and this is key to its maize output.

Forecasted rains for the south of the country are also helping growing conditions for this crop there and this is easing concerns for global maize supply.

Native prices

While nearby futures grain prices eased over the past week, physical prices remain strong, but highly variable. Nearby wheat and barley prices are mainly in the €400 to €420/t range, but higher and lower also.

New-crop prices for December strengthened, as markets absorb the implications of reduced production and tradeable grain. December wheat is currently in the €310 to €320/t bracket, with barley around €300 to €310/t.

Glanbia offered €263/t for green barley on Tuesday and €273/t for green wheat for September.