The Irish cattle kill is likely to reduce by up to 60,000/head in 2020. Mark Zeig, Beef Sector Manager at Bord Bia, presented the organisation’s most recent forecast for 2020.

As of 1 November 2019, there were 45,000 fewer cattle in the 0-12 month age category compared to 2018 levels, 36,000 fewer males in the 12-24 month category and an extra 14,000 cattle in the 24-26 month category.

It’s a similar story in the female category, with 7,000 fewer 0-12 month heifers, 19,000 fewer heifers in the 12-24 month category and 2,000 more heifers in the 24-36 month age category compared to 2018 levels.

This is good news for the beef sector, which endured a very difficult 2019.

The national dairy herd continues to expand

There were 60,000 fewer cattle killed last year at 1.74m, compared to 1.8m head of cattle killed in 2018.

This is likely to drop further to 1.68m in 2020 and is down from a high of 1.8m cattle slaughtered in 2018, moving closer to the 2016 kill figure of 1.64m.

The national dairy herd continues to expand, now standing at 1.5m cows. The suckler herd is now at 999,000 cows, a drop of almost 50,000 cows in the last two years.

Price

In 2019, the Irish R3 steer price declined by 6.8% compared to 2018 (€3.60 versus €3.85). For the week ending 29 December, the Irish R3 beef price was at €3.55/kg, compared with €3.66/kg in 2018.

For the duration of the year, the Irish beef price closely tracked the EU beef price. The average R3 steer price was €3.60/kg versus a UK R3 steer price of €3.88/kg and a continental steer price of €3.60/kg.

While other countries did see a lift in beef markets towards the end of 2019, the overhang in the supply as a result of factory protests in August and September meant the Irish market didn’t see the same lift.

The latest prices see Ireland at €3.55/kg, lagging €0.44/kg behind the UK price of €3.99/kg, while the continental EU price is at €3.64/kg.

Carcase weights

Carcase weights increased during 2019, reflecting a good grass year and animals doing well on grass. Steers showed the biggest weight increase at +10kg on 2018 weights. Cows also showed a large increase of +8.9kg. Figure 1 outlines the changes in carcase weights from 2018-2019.

Live exports

It’s been another very strong year for live exports, with numbers exported hitting 295,000 by the week ending 14 December 2019.

This is up from 245,272 in 2018 for the same period. Calf exports have seen the biggest jump, with an increase of 24% as 200,000 calves were exported in 2019.

Weanling and store exports were up 3% to 66,000, while adult cattle exports were up 22% to 29,000.

Spain continues to be the largest market for live exports

Cattle moving to Northern Ireland for slaughter during factory protests in August and September boosted this figure.

Spain continues to be the largest market for live exports, with 90,095 / head being exported in 2019, a drop of 3% on 2018 levels.

This was followed by the Netherlands taking 84,486 calves in 2019, an almost doubling of the 2018 figure of 48,740 and a 73% increase year-on-year.

Cattle exports to Turkey started off well in early 2019, but policy and currency issues altered exports during the year and the market has been slower than initially thought.

International markets have been stronger than expected, with Libya coming back to the market in a bigger way in 2019. Table 1 compares 2019 export destinations with 2018 export destinations, in terms of numbers of cattle exported.

Beef exports

EU beef production declined by 0.5% in 2019, with a further decline of 0.5% expected in 2020. Irish beef exports stood at 624,000t in 2019, down 1.5% on 2018. Export value was also back by 7% to 2.25bn.

Exports to Britain were back by 11% to 265,000 while exports to the rest of the EU didn’t change at 250,000t. Exports to international markets rose by 80% to 45,000t.

The long-term predictions are that global demand will increase both in volume and value terms

This was fuelled by demand from markets across Asia, including more beef going to the Philippines market. EU exports were up 8% in 2019, while imports were down 3%.

The long-term predictions are that global demand will increase both in volume and value terms, but there will be a correction in the global market as China and the surrounding countries recover from African swine fever.

A lot of this growth will come from countries in Asia. In the short-term, we can expect volatility in international markets as a result of demand for protein from across Asia.

Consumption

EU beef consumption was down 1% in 2019 and is likely to be down another 1% in 2020. This is as a result of a move towards plant-based living, which rose in popularity as a result of climate issues.

Meat-free meals and alternative proteins are gaining ground among consumers.

Environmental concerns and climate change are affecting consumer purchasing and consumers are eating less beef in an attempt to help solve the issue.

The Netherlands and Italy have also seen increases, while the UK, France and Sweden saw a drop in consumption

This trend looks set to continue, with EU research showing that people want to eat less meat in the future.

Ireland was one of the countries that skewed this trend in 2019, with beef consumption up 5.5%.

The Netherlands and Italy have also seen increases, while the UK, France and Sweden saw a drop in consumption.

In the UK, at a retail level, roasting joints and steak joints have come under the most pressure, back by 4.7% and 5.7% in sales respectively for 2019. Mince has seen a 2.2% increase in sales for the same period.