Last night saw the first in a series of IFA CAP meetings take place at Limerick racecourse.

It’s an appropriate venue; everyone there is hoping that they will be winners from this CAP reform. Or, at the very least, go home with as much money as they started out with.

Unfortunately, it’s almost certain that there will be more losers than winners, just like a day at the races, because as ever with CAP, there are two parallel debates. One is around the programmes, schemes and the associated payment levels, and the other one is about the budget. Until the budget is framed, we won’t know if there is more or less money to spend.

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As has been well recounted, all the budgetary pressure is negative. With many European economies struggling, there is little will to increase member state contributions to the coffers in Brussels. In the era of Trump and Putin, security and defence continue to be pressure points, the EU has never felt less safe.

This Thursday sees the Irish Government host budget talks in Dublin. Irish farmers’ hopes are carried by countries in the southern half of the EU, as the northern ones are coalescing into a bloc, pushing for a budget cut. The latter group holds the stronger hand; the current budgetary proposal on the table from the European Commission would see a blurred, merged and diminished budget for agriculture.

There was some hope in a package presented by the Cypriots, which preceded Ireland in the presidency. It proposed an overall cut of 2% in the multi-annual financial framework (that’s the budget for seven years).

Thomas Byrne, our Minister of State for Europe, will hold bilaterals attempting to break the deadlock between the “frugals”, led by Germany, and the pro-CAP and structural funds “friends of cohesion”.

Ireland is unusual, a net contributor to the budget, but a supporter of maintaining those traditional development funds to aid poorer regions. Perhaps that’s because we’ve been the standout beneficiaries of economic progress through EU membership.

In any event, Francie Gorman has a complicated position to adopt on CAP. Does he put his policy cards on the table, when the budget’s hand is still face down? And if he waits, will Ireland’s chance to influence the CAP programme have passed by?

Farmers will want to see the debate over the CAP’s identity kick off in Limerick. The ICMSA has hopped a couple of balls, on minimum stocking rate and “dry farmers”, but elicited no reaction.

Perhaps that’s because all the direction of travel from Brussels is toward full flattening; the INHFA is in the box seat. Gorman has been strong in stating that he wants the person lambing the ewe, calving the cow, finishing beef and growing crops rewarded, but he needs an ace or two in the next hand.