Poultry farmers are bracing themselves for some very dangerous days. The H5N1 strain of bird flu has now hit five commercial flocks on the island in the space of a fortnight. Reports of wild birds, either dead or sick, being tested for the virus are widespread across the country. We also know that a dozen cases were among Fota Island’s bird flock.

That extends the known cases from Cork across to the Carlow/Wicklow border, up to Meath, into Monaghan, and across the border in Tyrone and Fermanagh. Like the department store Shaws, bird flu is almost nationwide.

For turkey producers in particular, the prospect of a flock depopulation in the lead-up to Christmas is devastating. But the reality is that all medium-to-large-scale poultry producers are operating on very narrow margins, and can ill-afford the financial hit depopulation would involve.

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Breeders and egg producers are probably the most vulnerable. For those not familiar with the spectrum of poultry producers, they would equate to suckler farmers, who lose breeding animals in a depopulation, with a long lead-in time before having anything to sell again. A broiler or turkey farmer is more like a cattle finisher.

There is a compensation fund for poultry farmers who are depopulated due to disease outbreaks. It’s not just H5N1 that can affect flocks, salmonella is another risk. Payment of compensation is dependent on farms being passed as having the appropriate level of biosecurity and hygiene management.

The concern for producers is the scale of compensation that might be required should the number of cases continue to rise. The Meath outbreak alone involves 28,000 birds.

And these concerns won’t be alleviated by last week’s front-page story. The cuts to promised payments in the beef and sheep welfare schemes are not because of budget cuts, but because the increased budgets in both cases are insufficient to meet farmer demand. And everyone is very aware of the massive cost of TB control measures this year.

But the reality is that despite a very healthy budget surplus, Jack Chambers and Paschal Donohoe are being extremely prudent in terms of budgetary spend. How will Public Expenditure Minister Donohoe respond to a call for an increased- and unlimited- budget to compensate depopulated poultry producers? There would be an urgency that money be available and paid out quickly, as margins are so tight that poultry farmers would need to get back in the game as soon as is practicable.

Poultry farmers might be hoping that Santa delivers a mild winter to slow the spread as soon as possible. But if it gets colder, and Paschal plays Scrooge, it could be a bleak Christmas for turkey farmers.