The Irish dairy herd will expand by just 2% this year, according to the latest forecast from the Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF).

The figure is surprisingly low in the context of milk quota abolition and the 3.6% growth recorded in 2014 while still in a milk quota environment.

A swing away from dairy sires in 2013 has also resulted in the downgrading of the expected rate of dairy herd growth in 2016 to just 1.6%.

However, Andrew Cromie of the ICBF cautioned that any change in the projected culling rate from 22% would have a major impact on the overall size of the dairy herd. After 30 years of farm management decisions being influenced by milk quota, there is uncertainly around future trends in the retention of animals not in calf, for example. Milk price will also influence culling decisions.

The 2013 fodder crisis – which delayed breeding – and the weak market for surplus dairy stock are among the factors that have affected the number of dairy replacements on Irish farms. On 30 June 2014, the number of dairy heifers aged under one year was actually 3.5% lower than the previous year. However, for the 2015, ICBF has forecast an 8% jump in this category of animal.

Most forecasts suggest that growth in the national dairy herd will average 3% post-milk quota abolition.