Statistics published by DAERA suggest that NI will fall short of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets set out in the Climate Change Act passed by Stormont in 2022.

The legislation requires NI government departments to ensure that emissions in 2030 are at least 48% lower than the baseline year of 1990.

The latest figures suggest GHG emissions in 2020 were 24% lower than in 1990 and they are projected to reduce by a further 13% by 2031.

This would represent a total reduction of 34%, well behind the 48% target.

The switch from coal-fired electricity generation to gas and renewables has been a key factor helping most sectors to significantly reduce GHG output since 1990. The one outlier is agriculture, and when compared to 1990, emissions in 2031 are projected to be up 6%. By then, agriculture will account for 32% of all emissions in NI.

However, these figures do not allow for any new policies put in place between now and 2030 that could lead to lower GHG output. It is also not clear just how targets will allow for the fact that methane from ruminants (which accounts for two-thirds of GHG emissions from agriculture) does not have to get to net zero by 2050.

The NI Climate Change Act states that methane does not have to be reduced by more than 46% by 2050.

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