The architecture for EU agriculture for the remainder of the decade is now almost in place, with member states putting the finishing touches to their national CAP plans.

Last week’s EU outlook conference revealed a drop, or at best a slowing down, in EU production growth in the decade ahead, following a sustained period of growth since 2011.

Demand-led growth

Among the elements that stand out in the EU outlook report is the forecast that global meat, dairy and cereal demand will increase annually between now and 2031.

On meat, the EU doesn’t provide a breakdown between species, but the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations (UN) forecasts that global beef production will increase by 5.8% to 75m tonnes by 2030, which is the lowest of all meats.

Poultry meat is forecast by the FAO to be the meat of choice globally by 2030

Production of pigmeat is forecast to grow by 13.1%, poultry by 17.8% and sheepmeat by 15.7% between now and 2030.

Poultry meat is forecast by the FAO to be the meat of choice globally by 2030, accounting for 40% of all meat consumed. Pigmeat comes next with a 34% share forecast, beef will account for 20% and sheepmeat will represent 5% of all meat consumed.

The FAO has also identified that the main regions for production growth will be the US, Brazil and China, though the EU does forecast small increases (0.05%) annually for dairy and poultry meat production and a significant 3.5% increase in sheepmeat production in the decade ahead.

EU feed use is forecast to fall to 39.1m tonnes protein equivalent, a decline of 4.1% by 2031

The EU is also forecasting a decline in cereal production of 276m tonnes over the next decade, a decline of 2.5%. EU feed use is forecast to fall to 39.1m tonnes protein equivalent, a decline of 4.1% by 2031 and a reduction of 7.8m tonnes of cereal use in feed is also forecast

Continued increase in global demand for dairy, particularly across Asia, where 17% growth per annum is forecast by the EU report and 14% annual growth across Africa. EU production is forecast to increase somewhere between the 0.2% that is forecast for New Zealand and the 1.2% for the US so there will be a modest increase in EU dairy output and a retention of 30% of global trade a decade from now.

Elephant in the room

What was notably absent in the discussion was how the EU could maintain or even enhance its place in global food production.

The precedence given to emissions reductions in the EU and Ireland curtails the level of production ambition despite European and Irish production of animal-based proteins being among the most sustainable in the world.

In the other major agricultural producing areas of the world, food production takes precedence with a recognition that reduction of emissions is also important.

Beef production in Ireland is also towards the top of that table

This is, of course, particularly frustrating for Irish farmers, as our dairy, along with New Zealand’s, remains the lowest in the world on emissions per unit of output.

Beef production in Ireland is also towards the top of that table but is denied a higher place by EU policy on the non use of hormones to increase productivity.

Instead of being at the top table for global food production, EU policy and the Irish national plan dictates that we remove pasture land from production and incentivise an increase in organic production.

Risk from intentions

This latter policy risks causing major damage to the economically sustainable organic production sector in Ireland.

The reason that organic farming has accounted for only 2% of land use is simply because there hasn’t been a market-led demand that is willing to pay the necessary premium that organic production requires to be commercially sustainable.

Expansion of any sector that isn’t market led, using natural competitive advantages, risks creating a white elephant

The EU ambition of making organic produce more accessible to consumers really means making it cheaper through production incentives.

Expansion of any sector that isn’t market led, using natural competitive advantages, risks creating a white elephant.

Unfortunately, in this scenario, the small but successful existing organic sector becomes collateral damage.

Irish and EU agriculture needs a reset that reflects the real world of a sustained increase in global demand for animal-based proteins that Ireland is particularly well suited to produce.

Irish farmers then need to commit to taking every measure available to reduce emissions, as is the policy in other major agricultural regions.