The EU beef outlook to 2030 is forecasting meat consumption in the EU will decline, going from 69.3kg per capita in 2018 to 68.7 kg in 2030.

The cause is predicted lower availability, even with higher imports, and a preference for lower meat intake and meat substitutes.

Consumption

Within meat consumption, the forecast is for reduced beef and pigmeat intake and increased consumption of poultry and sheep meat.

Per-capita beef consumption in the EU is 11kg in 2018, but this is predicted to fall to 10.2kg per person in 2030.

On pigmeat, consumption is forecast to fall from 32.5kg per person at present to 31.7kg in 2030.

On the other hand, sheep meat consumption is expected to grow from 1.7kg per person at present to 1.9kg per person by 2030 and poultry is forecast to grow from 24.1kg in 2018 to 24.8kg per person in 2030.

Herd

The suckler cow herd across the EU is forecast to continue the decline that has been happening since 2000.

Numbers are expected to fall a further 900,000 between now and 2030 from 11.3m to 10.4m head.

Beef production is also forecast to fall to 7.7m tonnes by 2030 compared with 8.2m tonnes at present, which is a 6 % decline over the next 12 years.

Despite a prediction of less beef, not only is there no increase in prospect for beef prices, but they are expected to decline in the coming years, stabilising in the late 2020s.

Imports and exports

On global trade, the outlook report predicts a decline in EU beef exports and a corresponding increase in beef imports.

Exports of beef are predicted to fall by 8% in 2018 and continue falling in the coming years to be at 227,000t in 2030, 10% lower than at present.

This is because Brazil, Argentina and Australia are forecast to be particularly competitive in export markets.

On the other hand, imports from outside the EU are forecast to increase by 6% this year, mainly from Brazil and Argentina, and this is expected to continue increasing until 2030, when they are forecast to reach 350 000t, a 15 % increase on present levels.