Rearing cattle for beef production is the most common farming activity, with just under 80,000 farm businesses involved and many operating on a part-time basis.

CSO data showed a small increase in numbers in the first half of the decade from 77,700 in 2010 to 78,300 in 2016.

A survey to update this was due this year but has been delayed because of the pandemic.

The past decade saw the value of Irish beef exports increase from €1.5bn in 2010 to €2.1bn in 2019 with a corresponding increase in the volume of beef sold from 372,000t in 2010 to 555,000t in 2019 (Figure 1).

Irish beef is produced from both specialist beef breeding cows that rear their calves, and dairy cows that produce a calf that is reared independently from the cow.

The increase in the volume of Irish beef produced in the second half of the decade reflects the ending of milk quotas in 2015 and a large expansion in dairy cows which meant more calves going into beef production with a lesser proportion of “beef blood”.

Horsemeat

Just as the Irish beef industry was recovering from the market impact of BSE, it was rocked by the discovery of horsemeat in beef burgers in 2013. This was a pan-European meat fraud where lower-value horsemeat was being passed off as beef, but the fact that the initial discovery came through Irish testing put the Irish industry in the spotlight.

Unlike BSE, there were no human health implications and horsemeat is widely consumed on the continent.

However, it was a fraud that reflected poorly on controls in factories at that time.

It resulted in many major customers of Irish beef demanding shorter supply chains and a reduction in the use of meat traders or brokers to source manufacturing beef for burgers and further processing.

Markets

While the UK is the main export market for all Irish agricultural produce, the beef sector is the most dependent on that market.

It took just under 48% of the value of Irish beef exports in 2010, falling only slightly to 45% by the end of the decade. In volume terms, Irish sales to the UK increased from 200,000t at the start of the decade to 267,000t by 2019.

The increase in the volume of Irish beef produced in the second half of the decade reflects the ending of milk quotas in 2015 and a large expansion in dairy cows

Over that same period, the volume of Irish beef produced increased by 182,923t, with 67,449t going to the UK, 69,342t to the EU 27 and the remaining 46,114t going to other global markets .

Beef sales outside of the UK and the EU were tiny for most of the decade with the first meaningful increase in 2019 when 58,400t was exported, more than double the 24,466t exported in the previous year.

Market opening

Most beef markets outside of the EU were closed to Irish and EU exports as a result of the BSE legacy from the 1990s.

It was only in the past decade that meaningful progress was made in reopening these.

The big wins were first in Japan in 2013 followed by the US in 2015 and China in 2018, with most Irish-exporting factories only securing approval in 2019.

Japan has been a particularly slow market to develop as it has a particularly high import tariff of 38.5% on beef and initially had a specification requirement with only cattle under 30 months being eligible.

A trade agreement that came into effect in February 2019, which provides for a progressive reduction of this tariff over a period of 15 years, has resulted in a modest increase of beef sales.

US

The US market was opened to Irish beef with considerable publicity and a ministerial promotional tour in 2015, but only a trickle of exports followed.

There was a belief that an Irish-American market would emerge for high-quality steak cuts but this failed to materialise in any volume.

In fact, the US is one of the world’s largest exporters of steak meat but it is also one of the largest importers of forequarter manufacturing beef used to produce mince and burgers. In the second half of the past decade, modest quantities of this type of beef were exported to the US, reaching 4,800t in 2019.

China

China is now the world’s biggest importer of beef, taking 2.1m tonnes of beef in 2019 compared to a negligible 20,000t at the start of the decade.

This increased dramatically year-on-year, especially in the second half of the decade as the rapidly growing middle class adopted a more western diet.

Ireland spent most of the decade pursuing approval from China for beef exports.

The breakthrough came in 2018, although it was late 2019 by the time the majority of Irish factories secured approval.

Export volumes were 7,746t for 2019, with 1,500t of that taking place in December when all of the approved factories were in a position to export.

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

The biggest external impact on the Irish beef industry is the CAP, which is agreed on an EU-wide basis every seven years. The industry entered the decade with production-based support payments replaced by area- or land-based payments.

The 2014 to 2020 CAP extended this system, with beef farmers being particularly dependent on CAP payments for income.

The Teagasc farm income survey shows in 2019 the average suckler farm income of €9,182 having received €14,752 of direct payments. Other beef cattle farms received €17,856 on average but had a final income of just €13,893.

Low farmer profits and potential carbon constraints are major threats for the decade ahead.

This shows beef production costing farmers more than the payments they receive and proposals being debated for the next CAP in the EU Farm to Fork strategy suggest production will be discouraged, with support payments targeted towards low-intensity production and environmental measures.

Brexit and trade deals

With beef being the Irish agricultural export that is most dependent on the UK market, the UK’s decision in 2016 to leave the EU is a major threat to this trade.

It will be January 2021 when we experience the fact that the UK is no longer part of the EU single market and really feel its impact.

It is clear that, at best, there will be an administrative burden involving customs and health documentation, along with the likely requirement for a level of inspection for product entering the UK.

Cross-border trade on the island of Ireland is expected to continue as it is at present, though there will be an administrative requirement on Northern Irish trade with Britain to enable this.

During the last decade, the EU concluded a number of trade deals which are both positive and negative for Irish beef producers and exporters.

The deal with Japan has potential that will only be realised in the decade ahead, given its phased introduction over 15 years starting in 2019.

The Canada deal has, so far, led to a small growth in Irish exports, with no noticeable increase in Canadian sales to the EU. The deal with the Mercosur group of South American countries represents the biggest threat to beef, as it will give them access to the EU market for 99,000t of beef at a low 7.5% quota.

Looking ahead

Commercial pressure is not the only problem facing beef production in the decade ahead. It is identified as a major contributor to Irish greenhouse gas emissions and considered to be more expendable than dairy, given its lack of profitability.

Commercially, this decade is threatened by increased competition and trade barriers to Britain post-Brexit. Also, upcoming trade deals between the EU and Australia/New Zealand will create further competition for Irish beef in EU markets.

Sales beyond the EU will grow for Irish exports, particularly into China where demand is expected to continue growing.

Increased demand is also expected from other Asian markets such as the Philippines, Japan and possibly South Korea (when approval is obtained). It is anticipated that all of these are likely to be major customers by the end of the coming decade.

Key points

  • Export volumes increased by 183,000t, and value was up by €600m, to €2.1bn.
  • New markets opened in Japan, the US and China and all are expected to become substantial.
  • Low farmer profits and potential carbon constraints are major threats for the decade ahead.
  • Exposure to the UK market is highlighted by Brexit fears.
  • The dairy industry is slowly replacing specialist beef breeding as the source of cattle for the industry.