A slow decade for renewables but the outlook is bright

Renewable energy generation offers farmers the ability to diversify their business, generate additional farm income, reduce input costs and contribute to decarbonising the sector. This is how it works in many countries across Europe and the world.

Ireland is a laggard when it comes to the development of renewable energy generation. In what should’ve been a defining decade for renewables on Irish farms we instead encountered lots of talk but little action.

This inaction has led to a situation where Ireland now has to rapidly scale up its renewable energy generation capabilities. This article will attempt to summarise the main developments in the renewable sector over the past 10 years as well as look at what the next decade has in store for us.

Policy drivers

The EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) has been the key policy driver behind Ireland’s renewable energy efforts over the past decade. Under the directive, by 2020 Ireland is committed to have at least 16% of all energy consumed come from renewable sources. Ireland committed to meet this national target through 40% renewable electricity (RES-E), 12% renewable heat (RES-H) and 10% renewable transport (RES-T).

Renewable energy policy is interlinked with climate policy. In December 2015, the ambitious Paris Agreement aimed to restrict the global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

The EU set a binding target of an overall reduction of at least 40% in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Ireland will contribute to the Paris Agreement via the nationally determined commitment of a 30% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030.

As a result, in 2019, a major piece of climate legislation, the Climate Action Plan was introduced by the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment (DCCAE).

The Climate Action Plan includes an ambitious target to deliver 70% of Ireland’s electricity from renewable energy by 2030. Among other measures, the plan envisages an additional 12 gigawatt (GW) of renewable energy capacity coming online by 2030.

Supports

During the first half of the decade as our economy was nursed back to health, investment in renewables was slow. However, various supports were introduced and discontinued during that period.

In 2019, the long-awaited Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) was introduced by DCCAE to support the generation of RES-E. The auction-based system will see generators of renewable electricity bid for financial support.

The first auction (RESS 1) took place in July, with 19 new wind farms and 63 solar power projects successfully winning contracts. These projects will be supported for 15 years. The scheme will hold further auctions out to 2025.

The Climate Action Plan includes an ambitious target to deliver 70% of Ireland’s electricity from renewable energy by 2030

Until the introduction of the RESS, electricity from renewable sources was mainly supported through a feed-in-tariff scheme (REFIT). The REFIT operated as a floor price. In addition, two grant schemes for solar PV were introduced in 2018 and 2019.

There were four main support schemes for RES-H introduced over the past decade including a €1,200 grant to homeowners for solar thermal installations and a tax return to Irish companies of 100% of the purchase value of certain energy efficient equipment. The Targeted Agricultural Measures Scheme (TAMS) provided grant aid for a range of renewable heat technologies.

The most significant development came, however, with the introduction of the Support Scheme for Renewable Heat (SSRH) which provided financial support for converting to renewable heat for a 15-year period. Supports include an installation grant for renewable heat equipment and ongoing operating support for 15 years.

In Ireland, the support scheme for renewable energy sources used in the transport sector is a quota system. This scheme obliges suppliers of fuels to ensure that biofuels make up a defined percentage of the company’s total annual sale of fuel.

Progress

The pace of Ireland’s renewable energy development has been poor over the past decade. Confirmation of this was given by a Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) report in May which confirmed the country is on track to miss its 2020 renewable energy targets. Currently, figures are only compiled as far as 2018.

However, assumptions can be made about the scope of renewable energy generation out to 2020.

In 2018, 11% of energy consumed in Ireland came from renewable sources.

Renewable electricity (RES-E)

Renewable electricity forms the backbone of Ireland’s strategy to achieve the overall renewable energy target for 2020. RES-E has increased from 16.7% in 2010 to 36% in 2018, but is still well below the target of 40% (Table 1).

Wind generated 28% of all electricity in 2018, up from 11.9% in 2010. The contribution of hydro power to our share of renewable electricity fell from 2.6% in 2010, to 2.3% in 2018. Electricity produced from biomass recorded some gains over the same period, from 0.4% to 2.2%. The contribution from other sources (solar, biogas and landfill gas) also rose from 1.8% to 2.4% during the same period.

Wind is mooted to be a significant driver of meeting our 2030 targets and the auction-based RESS scheme supports the development of large wind farms. However, onshore wind in particular remains a highly divisive topic in communities.

Renewable heat (RES-H)

The heat sector continues to prove a challenging one to decarbonise. Ireland had the second lowest share of renewable heat of all EU member states in 2018. RES-H has increased from 4.3% in 2010 to 6.4% in 2018, well below the target of 12% (Table 2).

At the turn of the decade, the industry was still dealing with the fallout from a botched energy crop planting scheme with no demand-led policy in place.

Despite this, however, the contribution of biomass to renewable heat generation grew from 3.7% in 2010 to 5% in 2018.

Renewable ambient energy captured by heat pumps increased by 182% between 2010 and 2018 but still only accounts for less than 1% of heat use.

The contribution of biogas to RES-H has remained very low, at around 0.2%.

Renewable transport (RES-T)

Transport represents the single largest sector of energy use, but the lowest share of renewables. In 2018, Ireland was 13th out of the EU-28 for renewable transport. RES-T has increased from 2.5% in 2010 to 7.2% in 2018, well below the target of 10%. See Figure 1.

Renewable transport fuel use is almost entirely due to biodiesel and bioethanol. These are blended in all regular petrol and diesel for sale in Ireland. Without weighting factors, biodiesel made up 82% of renewable transport energy use in 2018. Bioethanol accounted for 18%.

Renewable electricity in road and rail transport also counts towards the RES-T target. However, it accounted for just 1.4% of renewable transport energy use in 2018.

There has been a step change in the population’s attitude towards climate change and by default, renewables, and it’s likely that this will continue over the next decade. Various policy drivers such as the EU Green Deal and the Climate Action Plan will drive the development of the sector. However, one big unknown is the effect of the Covid-19 global pandemic.

We’re likely to see the further development of wind energy, both on- an off-shore, to ramp up electricity generation. Electric vehicle uptake will also grow in anticipation of a ban on new petrol and diesel cars on Irish roads from 2030.

However, the haulage and agricultural sectors are likely to favour gas-powered vehicles such as biomethane (upgraded biogas), compressed natural gas or bio/conventional LPG or LNG over electric due to range. This will be a stepping stone to hydrogen. There will be a push from Europe for microgeneration of electricity which may be applicable to farmers once policy has been developed.

There will also be a push to develop even more community-led energy projects, with funding ringfenced for such projects in the RESS.

We will see the development of biomethane to some capacity over the next decade. However, in the absence of Government support, the sector will be developed by industry. An enormous effort has been put in by industry to develop the biomethane sector so far.

Many of the solar farms in planning will likely be developed due to ringfenced support under the RESS.

Schemes for on-farm renewable generation and energy recovery to displace the fossil fuel equivalent are likely to be developed. We’ll also see the piloting of new technologies such as hydrogen generation. However, given the country’s pace of development, it is unlikely that these will be commercially adopted here for some time.