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The past decade has seen growth in some sectors of agriculture in Northern Ireland (NI) but contraction in others. And it has been the intensive sectors that have provided this growth.
The number of laying hens has more than doubled to stand at 5m birds in 2019, while total poultry numbers (to include broilers) are up 50%. A total of 791 farms in NI kept poultry in 2019, compared to 657 farms in 2010.
Broiler production is dominated by Moy Park, the largest private sector company in NI. Its success is built around an integrated production model that ensures farmers receive sustainable returns for their work.
In recent years, that model has been replicated in the egg-laying sector, and has provided a cornerstone for growth.
Poultry enterprises keep many farm businesses viable in NI.
Returns are more volatile in the pig sector and the number of pig farms has dropped from 420 to 273 over the last 10 years, but sow numbers are up 24% to stand at 47,529.
The sector has consolidated, with over two-thirds of sows kept on just 35 farms.
While dairy would not historically be classified as “intensive”, estimates suggest that around 28% of milking cows are now in confined, high input-high output systems.
Poultry enterprises keep many farm businesses viable in NI
In total, there are more dairy cows (up 11%) and larger herds, with over two-thirds of the total cows in herds of more than 100. A record peak in cow numbers was recorded in 2016, at 317,146, and numbers have only fallen back slightly since then.
Beef and sheep
The picture is quite different for beef and sheep.
The number of suckler cows did increase in the early part of the decade, but has been on a downward trend since then.
From 2010 to 2019, overall numbers were down only 4%, but the 247,009 recorded in 2019 was the lowest beef herd since 1988.
The average herd size has remained virtually unchanged at 17.4 cows, so the drop in numbers is mainly due to farmers exiting the sector.
Some of those who exited beef have opted to keep sheep, although the increase in flock numbers over the last 10 years (9,694 v 8,348) was also driven by new active farmer rules that came with CAP reform in 2015.
With more flocks, total ewe numbers are up 7% to stand at 938,457 in 2019, but that figure is still well behind the 1.4m ewes seen during the 1990s.
Taking everything together, the increase in intensive production has meant significantly more animal feed was delivered to NI farms in 2019 than in 2010.
Total tonnage has gone from 2.071mt to 2.497mt. Nearly 44% of all feed goes to pigs and poultry, with a further 32% to dairy cows.
Home market
With such a strong home market for cereal grains, it is perhaps surprising that the Northern Ireland tillage/arable area has continued to contract. Only around 5% of the agricultural land area in NI is cropped each year, and in 2019 the area of cereals had fallen to 29,820ha, down from 37,779ha in 2010.
Taking everything together, the increase in intensive production has meant significantly more animal feed was delivered to NI farms in 2019 than in 2010
While much of NI is marginal when it comes to growing crops, at the same time there are strong arguments for encouraging, and perhaps even incentivising, more home-grown grain to help build a more secure farming industry.
With more feed being used, and more slurry being produced, ideally NI would have a larger tillage area that could offer an environmentally sustainable outlet for these nutrients.
The main problem in NI has been phosphorus getting into watercourses, primarily due to run-off after slurry spreading mainly, and also following application of P-containing fertilisers.
A recent survey found that 50% of fields on dairy farms, and one-third of fields on beef and sheep farms, do not require any additional P for grass growth.
The onus will be to ensure that nutrients go to the land that needs it, which ultimately will benefit both farmers and the environment.
Ammonia
The other major environmental challenge is ammonia, and up to 2016 it was not on the radar for farmers or policymakers.
Since then, concerns about the impact of ammonia on nearby environmentally designated sites have led to blocks on planning applications for new sheds, and brought the issue into sharp focus.
In effect, the whole issue of ammonia has slowed expansion in the intensive sectors and halted it in some cases.
Looking ahead, we need science to establish the baseline situation in NI, and map out a way forward.
Farmers will make the necessary changes, such as the use of low-emission slurry spreading equipment, but they need the right financial incentives and time to adjust.
Carbon
While phosphor,us and ammonia are two local issues, in a broader UK and Ireland context the carbon footprint of food production is the key environmental issue for the next decade.
Given that NI has 170,000km of field boundaries (mostly hedges), and predominantly extensive grass-based beef and sheep systems, it is imperative that the carbon sequestered by our hedgerows and soils is properly measured and accounted for.
Science
The science is not there yet, and until we properly understand the issue, the Government needs to be careful that it doesn’t force farmers into producing less, and simply export our environmental footprint elsewhere. But farmers cannot ignore the issue, and ultimately it is something they should not fear.
Lowering emissions per unit of output means farming more efficiently, more profitably, with benefits for our environment.
The wider agri-food industry is crucial to an NI economy which is still overly-reliant on public sector jobs. In food and drink processing, employee numbers are up 23% in the last 10 years, to stand at nearly 25,000, with turnover rising by 60% to now stand at close to £5.2bn (€5.78bn).
Our main market is Britain, taking half of all sales. But with 24% of sales to EU countries (15% of which are to the Republic of Ireland), it is understandable that many in the sector argued against Brexit, and remain nervous of the new arrangements that lie ahead.
Consolidation
The last decade has been a period of significant change in food processing, especially in dairy.
Augher Co-op, Fivemiletown Co-op and Linwoods have all excited, as has Fane Valley, which sold its dairy processing business in Banbridge to Lakeland Dairies in 2015.
In the same year, Town of Monaghan merged with Coleraine-based Ballyrashane to create LacPatrick, but it soon came under financial strain following a major £30m (€33m) investment in a new milk dryer in Artigarvan.
A merger deal with Lakeland Dairies created a new entity, but very much under the Lakeland brand.
It is now the largest milk processor in NI, with a pool of over 1bn litres, or nearly half of all NI milk. With Dale Farm co-op processing around 34% of the NI supply, these two co-ops process over 80% of the total.
More rationalisation will probably occur over the next 10 years, but it won’t be as significant as what has gone before.
Beef and sheep
Change has been less pronounced in NI beef and sheep processing. One medium-sized abattoir, Ballymena Meats, exited, but another has emerged in the form of DMP Foods in Crumlin.
Across the large slaughter sites, the main changes occurred in 2017 when ABP Food Group took a 50% stake in Dungannon-based Linden Foods.
With two other sites in NI, ABP is now the largest processor, with access to around 40% of the cattle kill.
In the same year, Dawn Meats completed a deal with Jim and Jack Dobson, the owners of Dunbia.
Two sites in the Republic of Ireland were sold to Dawn, and a new joint venture established in the UK, under the Dunbia banner. In the UK business, Dawn Meats initially had a majority shareholding, but in July 2020 took full control.
Looking ahead, with 11 slaughter sites across NI, more rationalisation is possible, and perhaps even necessary, but it is not obvious who would sell to who.
Pigs and poultry
In poultry processing, Moy Park is the dominant player, a position it consolidated when it acquired the O’Kane business in 2010.
Back then, Moy Park was owned by Brazilian company Marfrig, but it has changed hands twice since, with Marfrig selling to another Brazilian company, JBS, in 2015.
It then sold it to the US firm Pilgrim’s Pride in 2017. But, given that JBS owns a majority stake in Pilgrim’s Pride, it was less of an upheaval this time around.
In pig processing, the Karro factory in Cookstown is the largest slaughter plant in the UK and Ireland, and this was owned by Dutch meat group Vion at the start of the decade.
Vion exited the market in 2012, with its pig business the subject of a management buy-out, creating the Karro identity and was backed by the international equity group, Endless LLP.
In 2017, Endless LLP sold the processor to another equity firm, CapVest.
The other major change in pig processing saw Dunbia selling its factory in Cullybackey to Cranswick Country Foods in 2016.
Those changes have benefitted producers.
While consolidation might help to drive efficiencies, it is still critical that farmers can sell into a competitive market.
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