Agri food exports from the EU28 reached a record €148.6bn in the year to the end of October 2019, up €11bn or 8% on the year to the end of October 2018, which is a record for EU agri food exports.

Imports for the year to October 2019 also increased to €119.7bn, a €4bn or 3.4% increase on the previous year. The €28.9bn trade surplus in favour of the EU is also a record gap between EU exports and EU imports of agri products.

The main buyers of EU exports in the year ending October 2019 was the USA on €24.3bn, followed by China on €14bn, Switzerland on €8.5bn and Russia on €7.1bn.

Pigmeat exports to China from EU countries were a significant part of the increase, up €1.37bn to €6.2bn, a 28% increase in the year to October 2019.

Milk powders and whey increased 16.9% to €4.6bn and the value of butter exports increased 18% to €1.1bn. The value of cheese exports from the EU increased 7.6% to €4.3bn.

EU imports

The USA is the EU’s top supplier of agri imports for the year to the end of October 2019 at €12.3bn, followed by Brazil on €11.7bn, then the rapidly growing Ukraine on €7.3bn.

One notable change in the year to October 2019 was the decline in import of sheepmeat by 20% from €1bn to €837m, reflecting the fact that New Zealand filled just over half its quota for sheepmeat to the EU in 2019, with China becoming its top export destination.

Beef imports were also down on the year to the end of October 2019, though by a relatively small amount of €37m or 2%.

Outlook

The EU beef market has been weak throughout 2019 and nothing has changed in the first days of the new year.

Global trade is now dictated by China more than any other single market and the fact that that market has been in turmoil in recent weeks following the surge of imports in November means global turbulence in meat markets in particular.

This is also the lead-up to the Chinese new year at the end of January, which has a similar effect on that market as Christmas has in the EU.

It is unlikely that there will be significant activity until February, but when looking at the pattern of global supply and meat deficit and demand in China, it suggests that there will be strong demand there again in 2020.

The good thing from a beef perspective is that with so many Irish factories now approved, we are in a position to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.

However, as the events of the past couple of months demonstrate, all indications are that this will be an extremely turbulent market.